How much can we consume while in ICU?

With 1 million Indians entering the workforce every month there was great optimism for the economy in 2007, wrote Vivek Kaul, but since 2011 "things have started to go south and now, in 2019, we have enough evidence to say with reasonable confidence that India's so-called demographic dividend has started to unravel and is the main reason behind the current economic slowdown". The rate of unemployment among 15-29 year olds has jumped from 5% in 2011-12 to 17.4% in 2017-18. Private consumption expenditure constitutes 59.4% of the economy and the growth of this metric has fallen from 17.53% in 2011-12 to 7.02% this year. People have been saving less and borrowing more to finance consumption. Naturally, the number of new investments has contracted while the value of dropped projects has soared from Rs 4.04 trillion in 2010-11 to Rs 20.74 trillion n 2018-19. A study predicts that retail loans for buying real estate and vehicles will double to Rs 96 trillion in the next five years. How this will happen when growth of per capita gross national disposable income (GNDI) is slowing down is not explained. Some green shoots are visible. "Passenger air traffic volumes climbed 11.2 percent in November, the fastest pace in 2019 so far, while Maruti clocked the highest volumes since March this year of 139,133 in November." Fuel demand rose by over 10% and bitumen, used in road building, also rose. Former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian said "India is facing a "Four Balance Sheet" Challenge -- comprising banks, infrastructure, plus NBFCs (non-banking finance companies) and real estate companies". "It is India's Great Slowdown, where the economy seems headed for the intensive care unit." "After a collapse in rural incomes and a de-growth in casual wages -- heightened by the ban on high-value currency notes in end 2016 -- a recent National Statistical Office (NSO) survey leaked by Business Standard showed a significant 9% drop in rural consumption, including on staples, between 2011-12 and 2017-18," wrote Sayantan Bera. "With access of jobs and food worsening, there have been frequent reports of starvation deaths from Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand." While food inflation climbed to 10.01% in November core inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel costs, fell to 3.26%. "Core inflation being at a five-year low indicates the sluggishness of economic activity," wrote Vivek Kaul. Which means lower wage growth. Meanwhile, the government has asked tax officials to extort as much tax as they can which will worsen tax terrorism. Restrictions have been imposed on imports of gold and silver while the Reserve Bank (RBI) is buying dollars to stop the rupee from overheating. Why is the rupee so strong when the economy is headed for ICU? Because the stock market is hitting record highs everyday so that the prices of stocks are 26.57 times forward earnings of listed companies. So, higher share prices make some richer while we become poorer due to higher taxes. The nation is gasping in ICU.