Tuesday, December 24, 2019

Indian economy opposite of other emerging economies.

Prof VA Nageswaran confessed to being like a broken clock in predicting a collapse of financial asset price bubbles but has been proved wrong so far. "More than half of European pension fund managers said that quantitative easing (QE) had undermined the long-term viability of pension plans" and 65% of 38 pension consultants said "QE would be very hard to unravel without huge market volatility". Stock markets have defied all fundamentals. Although corporate profits declined from $1.792 trillion in the third quarter of 2014 to $1.621 trillion in the third quarter of 2016, US stock prices remained buoyant. "Nearly $13 trillion of sovereign debt is currently trading at negative yields," which could be the "mother of all bubbles". Could there be a repeat of 2008-09? "The financial-market buzz has seized on the possibility of 'reflation trade', in the hope that the recent global slowdown will be followed in 2020 by accelerating growth and firmer inflation," wrote Prof Nouriel Roubini. "US and other equities are trending toward new highs, and there is even talk of a potential 'melt-up' in equity values." However, a slowdown in China, persisting weakness of Europe, renewed trade war or conflict in the Middle East could trigger a collapse of the bubble. Couple of weeks back President Donald Trump halted new tariffs on Chinese products. In return, China halted new tariffs on US corn and auto parts. China's exports were down 1.1% in November, "after a drop of 0.9 percent in October on slowing global demand". Imports were up 0.3% from a year earlier. Online P2P lending in China, earlier encouraged by the government, was spiraling out of control. "Outstanding P2P loans peaked about two years ago at more than $150 billion" which prompted the government to shutdown the number of providers from around 5,000 to 1,490. At a cabinet meeting at Zhongnanhai in late May "officials were grappling not over the trade war, but how to tackle a home-grown adversary: about $35 trillion in corporate, household and sovereign debt". At the beginning of the year central banks in emerging markets were increasing liquidity but now "emerging-market central bank liquidity has dried up" which "helps to explain the anomalous poor performance of emerging market currencies". "The greatest risk remains, as it has been for years, that China succeeds in averting a Lehman-style credit crisis at home, but at the cost of an economic slowdown that would affect the rest of the world." Not in India. Here the stock market is hitting record highs almost daily while the Reserve Bank (RBI) has been buying dollars to keep the rupee from appreciating to much. Foreign exchange reserves are a record 454.492 billion. Indian markets are expected to rise even further on renewed growth. We export little and even that is falling so a global slowdown led by China may not affect us at all. We may become king of the wreckage.

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