Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Selective policies cannot help everyone.

Chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to Prime Minister Narendra Modi (PMEAC), Bibek Debroy expects the economy to grow at 5% this year and at 6-6.5% next year. "I think we are on a band of 6-6.5%. Expecting anything significantly higher in two year would be somewhat unrealistic." Debroy is extremely erudite having "authored over 100 books in the field of Economics, Polity, Indology and Sanskrit," according to Wikipedia. He has been honored with Padma Shree, a civilian honor. He would like states to carry out land and labor reforms, which would include the ability to lay-off workers, while ensuring a minimum wage and a social safety net. But, what about civil servants who have 'permanent jobs' and time bound promotion, regardless of productivity. They cannot even be investigated for corruption without permission of their departments but such permission may not be forthcoming for certain officials. Politicians have the power to transfer officials at whim and some, with a reputation for honesty, have been transferred scores of times. Debroy thinks that a 6% upper limit of inflation is too low and the RBI should be set a higher tolerance level. Retail inflation rose to 4.62% in October, mainly due higher food prices. Inflation is an increase in prices which results from an increase in demand or a fall in supplies. The rise in food inflation is mainly because of a surge in prices of onions because of excessive untimely rains in onion growing states. Demand for consumer goods, like soaps and shampoos, has slowed down, fewer people are eating out and even demand for liquor is not growing, while high-end resorts and hotels are reporting higher occupancy rates and there is demand for more expensive cars and decorative paints. This was predicted by another member of the PMEAC Rathin Roy who said, "The economy since 1991 is growing not on the basis of exports ... but on the basis of what the top 100 million of the Indian population wants to consume." This 100 million has been driving India's growth story and this is now petering out. We will not become South Korea or China, but rather Brazil or South Africa. "We will be a middle-income country with large numbers of people in poverty seeing rising crimes." Debroy wants a higher rate of Goods and Services Tax (GST) which will certainly increase prices but may reduce consumption even more. Low-income countries are suffering from low inflation, as in richer nations, but cannot use monetary and fiscal means as freely because their currencies might get out of control. Prices maybe increased by cutting supplies but that will result in jobs losses. The only way is to increase consumer demand which can be done by giving us more money to spend. Polymaths like Debroy should find ways of making the nation richer, rather than finding ways to help the government to the detriment of the people. Ordinary people can't. 

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