Tuesday, October 29, 2019

People love fairy tales. But for how long?

"The state of the Indian economy has been described in rather depressing terms lately," wrote Prof S Rajagopalan. "But there is another way to describe the state of the economy -- that it is in limbo." The limbo has been created because, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi left no stone unturned in going to various Indian and foreign platforms, declaring India open for business and encouraging investors to invest in India. Yet, the rhetoric has not been followed by meaningful reforms." "Prime Minister Narendra Modi is always talking," wrote V Khechar. "Once upon a time, every corner of the country used to hear the legendary voice of Lata Mangeshkar. Today, in a world full of sound pollution, that voice has been replaced by Modi's incessant words." "Once his statements are proved to be deliberate lies, he does no utter a word about it, let alone explain the situation." "In reality the lie is deliberate. He is inventing the big lie." "The Indian economy is facing a perfect storm," wrote Mihir Sharma for Bloomberg, and, "The immediate concern is crashing demand." "One of the central issues in India is the size and inefficiency of the public sector." Instead of dismantling the state sector "the Modi government has backed the companies it owns with renewed fervor". Why? "Coal India, Hindustan Aeronautics, NMDC, RITES, Engineers India, NBCC and MOIL are among the top seven candidates that may utilise 50 percent of the FY18 cash and bank balance to pay dividends to help the government to tide over the revenue shortfall." That was in January. Now, "The government wants the oil companies to pay Rs 34,000 crore in dividend" "15% more than they did last year". On the other hand, repeated government transfusions of cash keep moribund Air India alive and it is looking to spend Rs 690 billion to merge loss making BSNL with loss making MTNL, "rendering it difficult for private players in their sector to survive". So enormous are the charges for spectrum and licensing fees for private telecom companies that they have been asked to pay Rs 925 billion to the government by the Supreme Court. The top three telecom companies have a total debt of Rs 3.9 trillion which was incurred to pay for 4G at auction. Economic indicators, from credit growth to capacity utilization, falling yields on government bonds and rising unemployment indicate a slowing economy. After winning in 2014 Modi tried reforms of land and labor laws but at the slightest hint of criticism "the government developed cold feet and called the whole thing off". Why do tough things when Indians are so ready to lap up his lies? Until they don't. 

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