Tuesday, October 22, 2019

We can learn, but should not copy.

There is a renewed interest in Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) which says that "governments can and ought to simply print their way out of recession", wrote Ajit Ranade. "Fiscal stimulus and deficit spending should be supported by central banks, which should buy government bonds by printing currency if necessary." "The central idea of MMT is that governments with a fiat currency system can and should print (or create with a few keystrokes in today's digital age) as much money as they need to spend because they cannot go broke or be insolvent unless a political decision to do so is taken." "MMT says that a government doesn't need to sell bonds to borrow money, since that is money it can create on its own." Bonds and taxes are tools to reduce money supply if the economy is getting overheated. Left wing Democrats, like Alexandria Occasio-Cortez (D-NY), say that MMT needs to be a "larger part of our conversation", wrote Dylan Matthews. "The rise of MMT could allow Democrats to embrace the de facto fiscal policy of Republican presidents, who tend to explode the deficit to finance pet initiatives like tax cuts and defense spending, leaving Democrats to clean up afterwards." If Democrats accept that taxes are not necessary they will be agreeing with Donald Trump's tax cuts in the run up to elections in November 2020. Taxes maybe necessary to control inflation by reducing demand but are not necessary to finance fiscal deficit and interest rate should be permanently at zero. If income tax is abolished the wealthy will gain much more in absolute terms than the middle class, increasing inequality to astronomical levels. Economists, such as Thomas Piketty, would like to tax billionaires out of existence. This year's Nobel Prize winner Abhijit Banerjee argued for higher taxes on the rich. It is not clear if MMT applies only to the US because the dollar is the reserve currency of the world, which only the US can print. Every country in the world has built up foreign exchange reserves, a large part of it in dollars. "The United States had foreign currency reserves of $123.5 billion as of August 2018", compared to China with $3.210 trillion, whereas the total debt of the US government is nearly $23 trillion. As per the Federal Reserve, the US had a total of $1.70 in circulation on 31 January 2019. Which is Rs 75 trillion at a conversion rate of Rs 70 to one dollar. Total currency in circulation in India was Rs 21.10 as of March 2019. The US dollar is freely available all over the world and some countries use it as their national currency. "MMT calls for fiscal and monetary coordination, and practically opposes monetary policy independence," wrote Ranade. India has partly achieved that by appointing a retired civil servant as governor of the Reserve Bank (RBI) who has repaid his appointment by cutting interest rate five times already and handing a windfall of Rs 1.76 trillion to the government from RBI reserves. However, no government in India is going to cut income tax because it will be open to a taunt of being a "suit-boot ki sarkar", which maybe political suicide. As usual we have taken the bits that suit politicians. Of course, ti won't work.

No comments: