Thursday, October 17, 2019

Could this be a brilliant strategy?

Couple of weeks back the US announced it was going to withdraw its troops from the border between the northeast of Syria and Turkey. The majority of people living in this area are Kurds  who led the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that fought against Islamic State (IS). "It is time for us to get out of this ridiculous Endless Wars, many of them tribal, and bring our soldiers home," President Donald Trump wrote. "We will fight where it is to our benefit, and only fight to win. Turkey, Europe, Syria, Iran, Iraq and Russia will have to figure the situation out." "The Kurds, an ethnic group numbering around 30  million people, is widely recognized to be the largest stateless national group in the world." The Kurds want an independent state spread over Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria which means that they are seen as enemies by all these countries and persecuted by everyone of them. As soon as the US forces started to withdraw Turkey started a bombardment of Kurdish positions in the area and the Turkish army invaded with a view to establish an ethnically cleansed "safe zone" where they will settle millions of Syrian refugees who took shelter in Turkey during the civil war. The Kurds quickly reached a deal with Bashar al-Assad's government allowing Syrian forces, backed by Russia, to occupy deserted US posts in the town of Manbij. If Turkey refrains from attacking areas occupied by Syrian forces the Kurds can concentrate on defending other areas against the Turkish invasion. Yesterday, the US and Turkey agreed to a ceasefire for 5 days, which Turkey says is to allow the Kurds to dismantle the fortifications and vacate the area. There is bipartisan support in the US Congress for strict sanctions on Turkey if it does not stop the offensive. The irony is that Turkey is a member of NATO and can invoke Article 5 of the NATO charter which forces other members to defend it, militarily if necessary, if attacked by Syrian or Russian forces. But, while taking advantage of being in NATO, Turkey bought the S400 advanced missile defence system, capable of taking down the latest US stealth fighters, from Russia. The US has imposed sanctions on both Russia and Iran, both which will, therefore, delight in creating problems for the US. Last month, "Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani at Cankaya Palace". Iran has been a steadfast supporter of Bashar al-Assad throughout the civil war , directly and through its proxy, the Hezbollah which fought alongside Assad's forces. Erdogan has been supporting rebel groups fighting against Assad's army, so what happens now? Will the Turkish army attack Syrian forces in Manbij and take on Assad, Iran and the Hezbollah? Trump wrote a letter to Erdogan advising him not to be a fool but Erdogan threw it into a bin. An all out war between Turkey and Syria, supported by Iran and the Hezbollah, with the Kurds doing their bit will weaken all of them without hurting any US soldier. Brilliant strategy by Trump.

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