Wednesday, October 02, 2019

Taxes control citizens, foreigners control the rupee.

"After all, if the more left-leaning UPA, with all its coalition compromises and scams could reach 8% GDP growth," "A 10% GDP growth is the right benchmark for the current government, which is stable, not dependent on coalitions and in its second term," wrote C Bhagat. But, the economy grew by a 6-year low of 5% in the April-June quarter and is unlikely to grow very much faster this financial year. "S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday reduced India's growth projection for 2019-20 from 7.1 to 6.3%" and predicted growth to rise slightly to 7% next year. Even worse, "India's real GDP growth for the current financial year is likely to 5.2 percent, as muted business confidence, subdued demand conditions and concerns with the financial sector are hurting investments, according to the Economic Intelligence Unit." "Every country needs to rethink its definition of success," wrote R Sharma, "For emerging nations such as India, 5% is the new 7%, the appropriate aspirational standard." Problem is that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set a goal of $5 trillion GDP by 2024 when he will again face re-election. Bhagat suggests 6 simple steps to prosperity. Since, "Real estate drives a large amount of economic activity and consumer sentiment," he suggests a "massive" cuts in stamp duty. The entire collections under stamp duty go to individual states who have the liberty to set the rates. State finances are tight because they have lost control of sales and other consumption taxes due to GST and had to pay for loan waivers of farmers. Although GST is shared equally between the Center and states they have been short-changed by the central government which has raised taxes through cess and surcharges which need not be shared. Bhagat suggests legalising "medical marijuana", "which is already a multi-billion dollar industry worldwide", to help agriculture. Cannabis is native to India and the plants grow wild in many places. While marijuana companies are big business in a cold country like Canada, it is strictly controlled in India. Recently a truck carrying 800 kg of marijuana was seized in Delhi and the men arrested. Because if marijuana is easily available people may stop drinking alcohol, on which states collect humongous taxes. Every truck that goes out of a distillery has an excise inspector sitting in it, said V Raghunath. "There is an excise guard in the truck until it reaches the border. Another guard gets into the truck as the truck starts moving to other state." Bhagat suggests, "The rupee must move towards full convertibility." That would lose all control over the rupee. "The latest triennial survey by the Bank for International Settlements shows that 73% of the trade volume in rupee takes place outside the borders of the sovereign it represents, up from 56% three years ago," wrote A Iyer. Rupee trading in London "soared to $46.8 billion in April", compared to "$34.5 billion recorded in India". Taxes control the people, foreigners control the rupee. The old monkey trap.

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