Monday, September 23, 2019

Cars or carts, politicians must decide.

"Sales of cars and SUVs in India declined for a 10th month in August, as the worst slump in almost two decades for the country's auto sector shows no sign of letting up. Deliveries fell 41% from a year earlier to 115,057 units according to data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) on Monday. Truck and bus sales dropped 39%. Two wheeler sales -- a key indicator of demand in rural India -- fell 22% to 1.5 million units." The capital city Delhi has the largest number of vehicles in India at 10.9 million, and even here the number of vehicle registrations "declined in the first eight months of 2019, the first drop for the period for six years". "Auto executives have been demanding tax cuts and easier access to financing for manufacturers, sellers and consumers." The government responded by postponing hike in car registration fees and easier financing but it is unlikely to have much effect. When sales of Maruti Suzuki, which had 54% of the market share in November 2018, drops to 49.83% in April-August period of this year then it must be serious. Economies of entire regions dependent on Maruti are suffering as jobs are lost or working days reduced. Automobile parts industry, "largely deregualted" with import tariffs of 12.5%, has "higher productivity and much better export performance than the completely built units sector" which are protected by import tariffs "that are anywhere from 60% to as high as 125% in some cases", wrote Prof V Dahejia and R Subramania. Instead of protecting manufacturers of cars they should be subjected to 'Schumpeterian creative destruction' through open competition. "India's automobile industry accounts for 49% of the country's manufacturing GDP, and it directly or indirectly employs 37 million workers," wroteS Vishwanathan. "The auto sector contributes roughly 15% to GST collection." A huge proportion considering that, "In India, 22 people out of a thousand own car, while in the US and UK, 980 and 850 per 1,000 individuals have car respectively, NITI Aayog chief executive Amitabh Kant said." Import tariffs are kept high so that the government can squeeze as much money out of car owners, who at 0.022% of the population constitute an insignificant number of voters. Petrol is taxed at 94.97%, earning over Rs 11 trillion in 4.5 years for the government. Registration charge for new cars was increased from Rs 600 to Rs 5,000, an increase of 833%. Fines for traffic violations were increased by 90 to 500% recently. The driver and owner of a truck were fined Rs 200,000 in Delhi under the new rules. No truck driver earns enough in an entire year to pay even a fraction of the amount. The Prime Minister's home state of Gujarat slashed rates of fines by up to 90%. Delhi Chief Minister announced restriction of cars from 4 to 15 November to reduce pollution. Cheap publicity. Indian politicians have to decide whether they want a car industry or we should go back to bullock carts. None of these rules apply to politicians. 

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