Tuesday, September 03, 2019

Small industries will create jobs, large will not.

"Namita Pradhan sat at a desk in downtown Bhubaneshwar, India, about 40 miles from the Bay of Bengal, staring at a video recorded in a hospital on the other side of the world," wrote C Metz. "Pradhan was looking for polyps, small growths in the large intestine that could lead to cancer." "She was not trained as a doctor, but she was helping to teach an artificial intelligence system that could eventually do the work of a doctor." "AI is learning from humans. Lots and lots of humans." "One day, who knows when, artificial intelligence could hollow out the job market. But for now, it is generating relatively low-paying jobs." The slowdown in the economy is because of the "sharp fall in private final consumption expenditure from 7.2 percent in the March quarter to 3.1% in the June quarter", wrote R Merwin. Consumption accounts for 55-58% of GDP. "In recent years, household consumption has been financed by sharply running down savings, which have fallen from 23% to 17% in six years," wrote SZ Chinoy. "In other words, income/wage growth has been running much below consumption growth, forcing households to run down their savings and/or take on debt to finance consumption." This is because labor productivity is low, so "organised manufacturing has become progressively more capital-intensive, with labor intensity falling by a factor of five since 1980". Which means they are increasingly employing automation. Chinoy recommends encouraging firms to become larger, even though they have the money to buy more automation. In 2016, there were 5.6 million employer firms in the US, 89% if them had fewer than 20 workers. "The vast majority of businesses in the UK are small and medium businesses, which are usually ventures with fewer than 250 employees, according to European Union standards." In India, they are known as micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), and number over 63 million, contributing 29% to the GDP. "Close to 81% of all employed persons in India make a living by working in the informal sector, with only 6.5% in the formal sector and 0.8% in the household sector," wrote The Wire. "The Prime Minister and the government tend to conflate informality with corruption, and, in a misplaced effort to eliminate corruption, could end up killing the informal economy," wrote Prof S Rajagopalan. "Depending on how one defines it, more than 30% of the economy is completely informal, and perhaps 50% is quasi informal, and over two-thirds of the workforce is employed in informal enterprises." Modi need not worry. Soon AI will take over most labor and repetitive work putting an end to most informal enterprises. Since AI will be capital intensive and cheap to run we can expect a lot of the work to go back to rich countries, such as the US. Prime ministers get everything free for life, in India. What a relief.  

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