Thursday, September 12, 2019

What could be better than being paid to borrow?

The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rate and resumed bond buying to add stimulus to the Eurozone economy. "In outgoing ECB President Mario Draghi's next-to-last meeting, the central bank, as expected, delivered a 10 basis point cut to the deposit rate that banks pay to park excess reserves with it. The move pushed the rate to minus 0.5%." "The ECB said it would begin buying 20 billion euros a month worth of securities beginning Nov 1." The annual inflation rate in the euro area was 1% in August, unchanged from the previous month, and well below the desired rate of 2%. Europe's largest economy "Germany is in danger of a recession, a Munich-based economic research center said on Tuesday." "The German economy is at risk of falling into recession. Like an oil slick, the weakness in industry is gradually spreading to other sectors of the economy, such as logistics, one of the service providers," Timo Wollmershaeuser, Ifo's head of forecasts, said in a statement. But monetary stimulus alone will not suffice, fiscal spending is needed as well. "With storm clouds gathering over the economy, what Europe really needs is for Germany to open up its pocketbook and start spending big." "The possibility of major German spending to upgrade infrastructure and tackle the climate crisis is generating lots of excitement," but, the "Europe's largest economy is notoriously wary of borrowing." US President Donald Trump immediately demanded deep rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to weaken the dollar. He views negative interest rates as a form of currency war and would like the Fed to do the same in the US, to level the playing field. "The euro area, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden and Japan have allowed rates to fall slightly below zero," which forces banks to lend, instead of parking excess funds with the central bank. Jyske Bank A/S of Denmark is "offering 10-year mortgages at a rate of negative 0.5%". Which means, the bank will pay borrowers to borrow from it. Government bonds of a large number of developed countries offer negative yields, and yet investors have bought $15 trillion worth of such bonds. They are so risk averse that they are willing to bear a loss on their capital. "Central bank chiefs are under tremendous pressure from fiscal authorities across countries," wrote A Ranade, so that " central banks in advanced economies have become lenders of first resort", instead of "lending only against sovereign risk" as a last resort. "All that their policies have engendered is reckless risk-taking in financial markets, more leverage, greater inequality and tremendous stress on savers, bank deposit holders and pensioners," wrote Prof VA Nageswaran. "It is entirely possible that we are now entering an era of low economic growth and a higher rate of deflation being the norm," wrote D Mohan. We must get used to low rates of growth, wrote R Sharma. It does not matter in rich nations where falling population numbers mean low unemployment and higher per capita GDP but the population is still increasing in India. Interest rate in India should go down to 4% or even 3.5-3%, suggested N Rajadhyaksha. Only rich people can borrow, the poor have no collateral. Easy lending could lead to more non-performing assets (NPAs). Every medicine has a side effect. 

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