Friday, September 06, 2019

The economy needs a transfusion of money.

"Biscuits, briefs, bikes and booze: These 4 categories have long been the most accurate gauges of discretionary spending, and by extension, of the consumers' belief in the economy." Bears take over the market whenever sales of these do badly. There is one bright spot: Smartphones. "In the second quarter of calendar year 2019, the domestic market for these devices scaled a figure of 36.9 million units, up 9.9% over the same quarter in 2018." "From professionals to pushcart vendors to students and daily wagers, connectivity is a lifeline." "From just two mobile manufacturing units in 2014 to 268 mobile handset and accessories manufacturing units in 2019 which has led to 95 percent of mobile phones sold in the country being produced domestically, the star in India's "Make in India" story is indeed shining." "Our domestic market viz-a-viz domestic manufacturing is saturated and we have set our sights on a target of Rs 7.7 lakh crore of exports by 2025," said Pankaj Mahendroo, Chairman, India Cellular and Electronics Association (ICEA). "According to data from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai), between 2014 and 2018, the number of wireless subscribers doubled to 568 million even as data usage rose a whopping 56 times to 46.4 billion GB over the same period," wrote S Alexander. However, it seems that internet usage has reached a plateau. The phenomenal rise could have been "triggered by Reliance Jio's aggressive pricing, telecom operators had slashed costs, making mobile data in India, the cheapest in the world. In 2014 a customer paid Rs 269 on average for 1GB wireless data, by 2019 this has come down to Rs 8". Clearly, this is not sustainable, and as companies are forced to increase prices to cut losses, usage may drop form present levels. The CEO of Reliance Jio Mukesh Ambani wants to reduce his company's debt to zero in the next 18 months, wrote A Mukherjee. While the government and other companies are unable to invest this will "remove from play the only domestic balance sheet with unspent firepower". "The period from 2013-14 to 2017-18 (both inclusive) has been the worst five-year period for corporate India in the last 25 years. This is true for sales growth as well as profits after taxes." This, despite a slump in the price of crude oil after 2014. "Consumption is the most important part of the Indian economy, given that it forms around three-fifths of the Indian economy," wrote V Kaul. Why has consumption dropped so much? "The culprit is a deep-rooted wage suppression, a long-term issue that needs attention," wrote A Mukherjee. "As India Ratings' analysis shows, 80% of output generated in informal production gets used up in paying for capital, which is scarce; households get only 20% for toiling on farms and in cottage industries. At the same time, only 32% of the production of a bloated public sector is shared with the taxpayers and banks that provide the capital; 68% goes to a group of state and quasi-state workers who enjoy assured jobs and higher pay than they would in the private sector." If a large vampire sucks out blood, the economy is bound to be anemic. Simple really.

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