Professors study facts. Not strategy.

Reacting to the report by the Central Statistical Office (CSO) that the rate of economic growth dropped to a six-year low of 5% in the quarter ending on 30 June, A Padmanabhan, normally a loyal supporter of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, wrote that "the economy, in the absence of little or no investment over the last several years, has essentially been running on the single engine of consumption". "Intriguingly, it is rural demand which is shrinking the most; and, this, despite the nearly Rs 1.5 trillion sugar high stoked in the rural economy through a combination of the income-support scheme PM-Kisan and in rural employment guarantee program." Why the surprise? "In a country where 47 percent of the workforce is engaged in agriculture, it is the growth of agri-GDP that is even more critical for the alleviation of poverty and providing nutritious food," wrote Prof A Gulati. Agri-GDP grew by 2.5% in the first four years of Modi government because of increased imports of agricultural products while restricting exports, which acted as a tax on farmers. Promising to double farmers' real incomes 2022-23 is rubbish. "This means raising real incomes of farmers by almost 13 percent per annum in the next five years" which is similar to promising to raise "overall GDP growth of the country from, say, 7 percent today to 20 percent in the next five years". It may seem "absurd" to Gulati but it enabled Modi to increase the number of seats in the Lok Sabha to 303 from 282 he won in 2014. The Congress collapse in 2014 was because of double digit food inflation which fed into the consumer price inflation (CPI). Minister of Agriculture Sharad Pawar defended farmers' right to be paid a proper price for their produce. To which an angry editorial in the Mint suggested that the ministry should be shut down. Pawar was the only minister who dared to oppose Sonia Gandhi, wrote SSA Aiyer. "Pawar held that, despite its rhetoric about uplifting rural areas, New Delhi constantly sabotaged farmers." "When the cotton export ban was imposed, Gujarat CM Narendra Modi accused the government of robbing Gujarat cotton farmers of Rs 2,000 crore." To add to their misery the construction industry is stagnating. "Construction has been the leading job-creator in the last couple of decades, absorbing people who fled thankless farming jobs," wrote A Gopalakrishnan. To address the slowdown in GDP growth the government has announced a stimulus plan. "While the government agreed to open up its purse to buy new four-wheelers for its officers, it did not occur to it that the real crisis is out in the countryside, where most are struggling to maintain essential consumption," wrote Prof Himanshu. Of course it did. If farmers are kept hungry they will react with enormous gratitude when they are given handouts before the next general election in 2024. Another victory is assured. Brilliant strategy.