Sunday, September 15, 2019

If we don't want wealth, others will.

Ever since growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) came in at 5% in the June quarter there has been a spate of articles analysing reasons for the slowdown and suggesting ways to kick-start the economy. A growth of 5% is still growth but "The five straight quarters of slowing growth mark the longest slump since 2012," which maybe described as a quasi-recession, according to economist Teresa John. According to the previous Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian our GDP growth is overestimated by 2.5%, which means actual growth could be just 2.5%. No one wants to think of that, probably for fear of spooking the markets. The main reason for the slowdown is a slump in investment. "Indian companies, across both private and public sectors, announced new projects worth Rs 43,400 crore in the June 2019 quarter, 81% lower than what was announced in the March quarter and 87% lower than the same period a year ago," wrote S Alexander. Companies are not only refraining from investing in new projects, old projects have stalled for lack of funds. "Implementation of investment projects worth Rs 13 trillion has also been stalled." The Economic Survey of 2016-17 suggested that corporations overborrowed from 2003-2012 and are now unable to repay their debts, "while those that remain sound can't invest either because fragile banks are not in a position to lend to them", wrote V Kaul. However, debt-to-equity ratio and interest coverage ratio suggest that most Indian companies are not overleveraged. The real reason is that, "Tax rates are not only high, but also change every few months," wrote C Bhagat. Businesses are seen as mafia enterprises and rich people as bad people. "So, super rich people are super bad." Every effort is made to tax them out of existence. Regulations in India are too repressive. "It is exhausting for businesses and individuals to navigate the regulatory gauntlet because of overreach by enforcing agencies, and it is often manifest in the execution of direct and indirect tax laws. This is what has come to be know as 'tax terrorism'," wrote R Jayaswal. "The Prime Minister and the government tend to conflate informality with corruption, and, in a misplaced effort to eliminate corruption, could end up killing the informal economy," wrote Prof S Rajagopalan. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) is too complex to comply with. "Tax commissioners have wide powers to arrest people without registering an FIR (first information report) or police complaint, and businessmen are left without the option of anticipatory bail." China opened up its economy to foreign investment while India resorted to import substitution by protecting local industries with high taxes on imports which is why China became rich and we didn't, wrote V Kaul. "The trouble is that in the last two years, the government has been encouraging protectionism and import substitution all over again." No wonder terrified wealthy people are procuring passports of other countries. They will take their wealth with them.

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