Sunday, July 14, 2019

We may forget, but they won't.

"We will raise a part of our borrowing abroad now in foreign currency," said Finance Secretary SC Garg. "We raise Rs 7 lakh crore as borrowing. We take it all from the domestic market and so much less is left for the private sector. If I raise 10% of that, additional Rs 70,000 crore (Rs 700 billion) would be left for the private sector." So, it is for our good. Thank God. "Sovereign foreign borrowing is a bold move," wrote Prof Ila Patnaik. So is jumping off a plane without a parachute. But, is it wise? "It can help reduce the cost of capital for both governments and corporates. Foreign borrowing is critical if the government is to meet its target of Rs 100 lakh crore (Rs 100 trillion) of infrastructure investment and build a $5 trillion economy." "India has shied away from raising sovereign debt in global money markets to mainly shield itself from being impacted by global financial crises," wrote Zia Haq. At 5%, our external debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) is the lowest globally and that's why we could quickly recover from the crisis caused by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. "Our approach to allowing foreign funds to buy Indian debt was also influenced by the 1991 balance of payments crisis when we ran short of dollars to pay an International Monetary Fund (IMF) debt," wrote L Venkatesh. The balance of payment crisis in 1991 is seared in our memory, when the Reserve Bank (RBI) had to pledge 47 tons of gold to the Bank of England and 20 tons of gold to the Bank of Switzerland to raise $600 million. "Foreign bankers often meet finance ministry officials, trying to persuade India to issue a foreign bond," wrote former governor of the RBI Raghuram Rajan. Surely not for our benefit. They say that borrowing in foreign currency is much cheaper because interest rates are much lower. The Federal Funds rate in the US is 2-2.25% and will probably fall further according to hints given by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell. The European Central Bank held its interest rate at 0% during its recent meeting. In 2013, the rupee dropped to 69 to the dollar when the then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at tapering US bond buying program, known as quantitative easing. Foreign bankers also say that it will increase liquidity in India, it would allow our companies to borrow at cheaper rates by setting a sovereign benchmark and foreign investors would be able to trade easily in our bonds without registering in India. Which would mean that bond prices will be controlled by foreigners rather than by our RBI. Finally, in case of default vulture funds buy up the bonds for a few cents to the dollar and force full repayment through US courts. Prof R Hausmann wrote a passionate appeal not to buy, what he called, "hunger bonds" of Venezuela. India is not Venezuela or Argentina, but we should not forget 1991. Or the 'taper tantrum'of 2013.

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