Monday, July 01, 2019

India could be obliged to the king.

"US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping reached agreement at the G20 summit in Japan" "to resume trade talks, easing a long row that has contributed to a global economic slowdown". Trump confirmed that he would not be adding tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods in addition to the $200 billion worth that are being taxed already. Trump also allowed US companies to sell products to Huawei which is seen as an extension of Chinese intelligence. US firms have been lobbying for a lifting of the ban which was hurting their business. However, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow insisted that Trump is not backing off but "What's happening now is simply a loosening up of general merchandise" which is available around the world and not for "national security sensitive" material. Huawei declared a fall of $30 billion in revenue because of the ban. Founder CEO of Huawei Ren Zhengfei said, "We did not expect they'd attack us on so many aspects." "We cannot get components, we cannot participate in many global organisations, cannot work closely with universities, cannot use anything with US components, and cannot even setup connection with networks that use such components." "The US has warned the Indian government that companies found supplying equipment or other products of American origin to Huawei or its units could face punitive action, said people with knowledge of the matter." Many large US corporations have begun to move parts of their production lines out of China and probably will not return even if a trade deal is reached. "The US Commerce Department blacklisted five Chinese tech entities" involved in the manufacture of super computers. Some Chinese scholars have been banned from the US over fears of espionage. Even if a trade deal is reached "Global companies would almost certainly respond by continuing to shift at least the final stages of their supply chains out of China," wrote the New York Times. The world's biggest bicycle maker Giant Manufacturing Co started moving production of US-bound products from China to its home base in Taiwan as soon as Trump threatened tariffs. "When Trump announced the plan of 25% tariffs, we took it seriously," said Chairwoman Bonnie Tu. "We started moving before he shut his mouth." Trump has "doggedly pursued what he believes as America's national interests (especially in trade) and has aggressively challenged China in ways that no American president has done for four decades," wrote Ying Ma. This despite the fact that he calls Xi Jinping a king. When Xi objected that he is a president Trump said, "No, you are president for life, and therefore you are king." It is unlikely that China will shift from, what it sees, as a winning strategy so talks are likely to fail again. That will be great for India.  

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