Wednesday, July 17, 2019

New India seems a lot like old India.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that India will become a $5 trillion economy in five years, by 2024. "It is a good thing for a nation to aspire to a target. It also suggests that Modi 2.0 has a new mindset -- a happy change from the 'garibi hatao' mindset of giveaways that afflicted Modi 1.0 after Rahul Gandhi's jibe about 'suit boot sarkar' which led to an unhappy race to the bottom during the recent general elections," wrote Gurcharan Das. Not exactly. In the very first cabinet meeting following his election victory, Modi announced Rs 6000 giveaways to all farmers every year at a cost of Rs 870 billion and a monthly pension to 50 million farmers at a cost of Rs 107.75 billion per year. Pension of Rs 3000 per month will also be given to 30 million traders and shopkeepers. To double the economy in size will need reforms. "It is not enough to implement reforms, Modi needs to sell them," thinks Das. For that reason Modi has asked all BJP MPs to go on 150 km 'padyatras' (journeys on foot) to interact with the people, wrote S Shekhar. But, to sell what? The Nehruvian "idea of India" has given way to the "new India" of Modi, wrote Prof V Dahejia. India, like Turkey and Iran, started with secularism but that "has been all but replaced by an (as yet) undeclared Hindu (or Indic) state". "Some observers expect Indira Gandhi's add-ons 'socialist' and 'secular', which were inserted in the Preamble to the Constitution during the Emergency, to be replaced by the term 'Hindu' or 'Indic' at some point." All this will hardly lead to economic growth and increase in employment. "It is almost scandalous that youth unemployment rate (unemployment among those in 15-29 years age category) has reached a high of 17.8%," wrote KP Kannan. The level of unemployment rises as the level of education goes up. The rate of unemployment among secondary school pass is 5.7%, which jumps to 10.3% in those who are higher secondary pass. "The highest rate is among diploma and certificate holders (19.8%); followed by graduates (17.2%); and postgraduates (14.6%)." "Competitiveness is affected by tax rates, interest rates, exchange rates and labor costs," wrote SS Bhalla. Recently released data from the OECD reveals "what has been feared and argued for a long time -- India has one of the highest (actually the highest) corporate tax rate in the world". According to the OECD, India's effective corporate tax rate (ECTR) is at 44%, while "China's ECTR is 20 ppt (percentage points) lower than India at 23.6%". Tariffs on imports were increased in the Budget on 5 July. "The increase in tariffs, which is part of a broader push towards protectionism and promoting Make in India, will have important implications for the industry and economy," wrote T Kundu. Giveaways, higher taxes and 'import substitution' are Nehruvian policies. Nehru had absolute power after independence. Modi wants the same. That is what he has to sell.

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