Saturday, July 20, 2019

It's all a confidence trick.

Fifty years back, on 20 July 1969, three men walked on the moon, carried there by Apollo 11. That anniversary of triumph of science is being celebrated throughout the world. One day before that joyful event, in a black day for India, on 19 July 1969, then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi nationalized 14 private banks with deposits of Rs 500 million. "The political situation in our country today demands that banking facilities should be extended in an increasing measure to backward areas, to agriculture, to small-scale industry and so on and perhaps banking operations should be informed by larger social purpose," said Gandhi. That move did have beneficial effects. "In July 1969, at the time of nationalisation of banks, there were just 8,262 bank branches in the country. At the end of June 2018, state-owned banks alone had built a network of branches or franchise of over 90,000 (over 29,000 in rural areas) and over 1.45 lakh ATMs, while private banks had 28,805 branches." There is no evidence that this proliferation is because of nationalisation and not a natural result of increasing wealth and population demand. In 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked banks to open zero-balance accounts so that poor people can avail of banking services. Banks have opened 355 million such accounts, with cumulative deposits of Rs 998 billion. Nationalisation was Indira Gandhi's means of diverting attention from near famine, which we survived by begging for grains from the US under the PL 480 program, and the devaluation of the rupee. Gandhi promised minimum interference but "The fact that successive governments continue to maintain a tight grip on the banking sector shows the political importance of having control over the credit spigots in the economy," wrote N Rajadhyaksha. Economist Shawn Cole of Harvard Business School found that "a more than doubling of agricultural credit to villages led to no measurable increase in agricultural investment," wrote M Sharma. Modi has continued the practice of using depositors' money for political ends which will increase bad loans. The Congress waived loans to farmers in 2008 at a cost of Rs 716 billion to win elections in 2009. Modi promised loan waiver and pensions to all farmers to win elections this year. "Increasingly, the BJP appears to be mimicking the very political force it has replaced as the dominant party of our time, the Congress," wrote R Sardesai. It is encouraging defections from other parties, including "Atanasio 'Babush' Monserrate, who faces a serious charge of raping a minor in 2016", by offering them ministerial posts. "How many Congressmen does it take to make the BJP more like the Congress?" asked the Indian Express. Instead of a "Congress mukt Bharat (India free of Congress)", as promised by Modi, we have ended up with a "Congress yukt Bharat (India tied to Congress)". Modi has been able to convince people that he is different, when he is exactly the same. That makes him a con artist.

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