Tuesday, July 02, 2019

A doom-loop of prestidigitation?

"Major automobile manufacturers Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, Tata Motors and Toyota Monday reported a decline in domestic passenger vehicle sales in June, continuing the prolonged slump in market due to poor consumer sentiments." "Market leader Maruti Suzuki India (MSI) said its domestic sales during the month were down 15.3 percent at 1,14,861 units last month compared to 1,35,662 units in June last year." So what? We are told that India is a poor country, though absolute poverty, those surviving on $1.90 per day has been reduced drastically, so it should not matter if some of the better off are buying fewer cars. The government collects 29% tax on the smallest car, which jumps to 43% on anything bigger. Collections under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) fell below Rs 1 trillion in June, so any fall in car sales cannot help. Falling sales also means fewer employees in the auto sector, fewer dealers and less business for garages servicing cars. Fewer car sales means fewer people taking loans from banks. "At Rs 2 lakh crore, this portfolio  constitutes almost 10% in the commercial banking system." "Data released Monday underscored the country's slowing economy, which has emerged as the key concern for the new government." "The slowdown in the economy is most severe in the consumer-facing sectors (with all consumer economy indicators in the red) but has also affected the industrial sector, as aggregate demand in the economy has slowed down," wrote Bhattacharya and Kwatra. There is considerable suspicion about our fiscal deficit figure. Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank (RBI) in June showed members dissenting about government figures. "Fiscal 'prestidigitation' or sleight of hand may contribute to our own version of a 'doom-loop', i.e. by pushing expenditure off budget to meet deficit targets and then recourse to borrowing from national small savings fund by state entities keeps administrative interest rates high to incentivise such savings," said Chetan Ghate. Deputy Governor Viral Acharya "pointed out that when public sector borrowing requirements are taken into account, India's consolidated fiscal deficit (between 8-9% of gross domestic product (GDP), according to him) has reached levels similar to the 'taper tantrum' of 2013." Now the country is running out of water which may affect agriculture and industry. So many deficits. What's the answer? 

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