Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Let's finish all the money once and for all.

"The International Monetary Fund (IMF) further cut its annual forecast for India, as it expects weaker domestic demand to limit an economic recovery." "The downward revision of 0.3 percentage point for both years reflects a weaker-than-expected domestic demand," IMF said on Tuesday in its update to the World Economic Outlook (WEO). But, "India may have to revise downwards what is considered its 'potential' rate of growth from 7-8% to bring expectations more in line with reality, former Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) Arvind Subramanian has argued in a paper." "Today's 4.5% is impressive as size of the economy now is five times of 1980 levels." Problem is that China is growing at 6.2% with a GDP of around $14 trillion, about 5 times the size of India. Although our GDP calculation is not obviously wrong, "Subramanian already pointed to the fact that from 2011-12 to 2017-18, India's export growth was zero percent," wrote former CEA Prof K Basu. "Turning to other micro data, India's automobile sector is stalling, and the balance sheets of Indian corporations have worsened." He recommends, "We should be prepared to make a measured increase in fiscal deficit for a year or two." But, "Outgoing RBI (Reserve Bank) deputy governor blamed high government borrowing for the asset-liability mismatches of non-banking finance companies (NBFCs)." "Acharya said that while India is not an exception in terms of having a fiscal deficit, it stands out in terms of the size of its fiscal deficit, which was recorded at 6.68% of GDP in 2018, surpassed only by Brazil at 6.84%." Surely not. "India met its fiscal deficit target of 2018-19, which came in at 3.39 percent of GDP, slightly lower than 3.4 percent estimated in the revised estimates of the Budget, on the back of an increase in non-tax revenue and lower expenditure" official data showed. Higher government borrowing sucks out liquidity from NBFCs, which are India's shadow banks, and increases their cost of borrowing. "The universe of more than 11,000 India's shadow lenders draws its sustenance from formal banks, as well as from companies and individuals looking to deploy short term surpluses," wrote A Mukherjee. NBFCs are essential for lending to companies without which growth will stall and unemployment will grow. "That's why during the crisis of confidence triggered by IL&FS's $12.8 billion bankruptcy, emergency liquidity support for shadow-banking became a contested issue between the government and the central bank, which wasn't keen to deploy its balance sheet to take on private credit risk." That is why the government wants the RBI to transfer Rs 3.6 trillion from its reserves. Having looted public sector banks it wants to loot the central bank. Then what?     

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