Modi surely knows, doesn't he?

Yesterday was the penultimate day of India's general election, starting on 11 April and ending on 19 May. Only UP, Bihar and West Bengal vote in all 7 phases, UP because it is the largest state in India and Bihar and Bengal because of extreme political violence. Why do Indians bother to vote at all? Naturally, in a country with 29 states and 7 union territories and 22 official languages, the reasons for voting are varied. Economic performance has a major effect on how people vote, but regional biases, religion, caste, and recognition of certain families, all have influence on voting trends. Being a criminal is a vote-winner because 36% of our elected representatives have charges of serious crimes against them. This is not only because criminal thugs have the money to distribute gifts to voters and goons to prevent opposition candidates from standing, by physical intimidation, but also because people actively vote for criminals as they can force delivery of services for which civil servants were demanding bribes. Indian politicians, on the other hand, firmly believe in distributing handouts which is an easy way to buy votes without any personal liability. Thus, Prime Minister Modi announced a scheme to distribute Rs 6,000 to 120 million farmers at a cost of Rs 750 billion which was trumped by the Congress when its President Rahul Gandhi announced Rs 72,000 per year for 500 million poor families. "They made a hue and cry by giving Rs 52,000 crore in 10 years while the PM-KISAN scheme will disburse Rs 7.5 lakh crore (7.5 trillion)," said Modi. Gandhi responded by promising to deposit Rs 72,000 directly in bank accounts of women. Since elections are held in phases over such a long period, the Election Commission bans publishing of exit polls because they may influence voting in the next phase. We may expect absolute frenzy on media channels as soon as voting closes on 19 May. However, it is not stopping people from making predictions or giving dark hints. D Sinha estimates that the Congress will increase its seat tally from 44 in 2014 to between 140 and 150 this time, while the BJP will come down to 170-180 seats from 282 it won in 2014. Even if we do not know what exit polls are showing "the signs of who has won and who has lost are all around us if we are alert to them", wrote Aakar Patel, no friend of Modi's. There is a theory that minister for road transport, shipping and Ganga rejuvenation Nitin Gadkari would be more acceptable than Modi, who is equally revered and reviled, to other parties in case the BJP has to depend on a coalition to maintain power. Is Modi panicking? Is his disgraceful attack on former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, who was assassinated by the LTTE, a sign that he knows that the voters have given him the boot? The suspense is building.