Saturday, May 11, 2019

Iran needs a sugar daddy like North Korea has.

About a week back the US sent "the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and a bomber strike force to the Middle East". This was to send a "clear and unmistakable message to the Iranian regime", according to National Security Adviser John Bolton. "The United States is not seeking war with the Iranian regime, but we are fully prepared to respond to any attack, whether by proxy, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or by regular Iranian forces," he said. "If these actions take place, if they do by some third party proxy, a militia group, Hezbollah, we will hold the Iranian leadership directly accountable for that," said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, warning against any attack on US interests in the Middle East. One day back the US sent Patriot missiles, which are anti-missiles, to the Middle East, "And US B-52 bombers have arrived at a base in Qatar, the Pentagon said." All this is because in 2018 the US unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal signed by previous President Barack Obama. In addition the US imposed economic sanctions on Iran to target the "energy, shipping and shipbuilding, and financial sectors". The US had allowed 8 countries, including India, China and Japan, to import oil from Iran but withdrew the waiver from 1 May 2019. Since India is dependent on imported oil, total stoppage of import of Iranian oil is a severe inconvenience to us. In 2012, oil exports contributed about 80% of Iranian government revenue, so the imposition of sanctions has caused the economy to contract. Iran's GDP contracted 3.9% in 2018, oil exports fell to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) from 2.3 million bpd, traders are offering 143,000 rials to the dollar as opposed to the official rate of 42,000, and inflation shot up to 31% in 2018, compared to 9% in 2017. Washington's suspicions about the regime in Iran go back to 1979, when students broke into the US embassy in Tehran and took 60 Americans hostage. As is usual, ordinary people are paying for the ambitions and perverse policies of the administration. As the economy goes down further anger is going to grow. How will the regime respond? It cannot dismantle its nuclear and missile programs, as Trump demands, because that will be seen as capitulation. The US says that it had credible intelligence of attacks being planned on US troops in the Middle East. Iran could restart its uranium enrichment but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed never to allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons. If the US thinks it can subdue Iran by force it is a "pipe dream. Iran has stood up to unprecedented sanctions for four decades and remained unbowed," wrote Prof M Ayoob. What if Iran keeps lobbing shells into the Gulf waters without hurting anyone. Oil prices will shoot up and the global economy will tank. Will the US attack Iran for splashing water? Unlike North Korea, Iran does not have China to support it. That is its main problem.

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