Friday, May 24, 2019

He won because they lost.

Results are in and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has won in a landslide, winning 303 seats, enough to give it absolute majority on its own. The Congress came second with 52 seats which is a slight improvement on its performance in 2014 when it got just 44. This is less than 55 seats, or 10% of the total, required to appoint a leader of the opposition. Of those elected, 300 will first term members of parliament (MPs), 12% of MPs are below 40 years of age, and 78, that is 14%, are women. The largest number, 39%, declared politics as profession, which means they will do anything to win, and 38% are engaged in agriculture, which means tax free income. Modi came to power in 2014 promising development and economic growth but the economy has been slowing down with fall in consumer demand. India had hoped for a reforming prime minister like Shinzo Abe of Japan but Modi's first five years were a waste, wrote A Mukherjee. So, why did he win with an increased majority? Because Modi was able to change the narrative from development to nationalism, wrote I  Marlow. The suicide bomb attack at Pulwama in Kashmir that killed 40 soldiers in February provided Modi the opportunity he wanted. Air strikes on a terrorist training center at Balakot inside Pakistan was used by Modi to claim that only he has the guts to take on the enemy. Pakistan claimed that bombs had missed their target and only destroyed 19 trees instead, but the return of Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, whose plane was shot down over Pakistani territory, united the nation in the joy of victory. The Congress failed to highlight that there was a rise of 93% in the number of security personnel killed in Kashmir between 2014 and 2018. The number of civilians killed also rose. Killings by Maoist terrorists, known as Naxals, have also been rising. In Uttar Pradesh, India's largest state, quick implementation of welfare schemes helped to win votes of the poor and lower castes. Instead of creating jobs India has lost 11 million jobs in 2018 alone but Modi was able to convince people to vote for him by distributing handouts, wrote S Chakrabarti. Modi announced Rs 6,000 per year to all farmers with less than 2 hectares of landholding. The Congress went one better and announced a scheme to pay Rs 72,000 per year to 50 million of the poorest families. But it didn't work. Maybe because people could not be sure if they would be included in the scheme, they may have thought that this would be instead of the benefits they are getting already or because of past experience. Prof V Dahejia saw a parallel between Modi and the landslide victory of Argentina's Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner because of fragmented opposition, by fudging economic statistics and generous welfare schemes. You are only as strong as the opposition allows. The opposition was fragmented and did not focus on Modi's failures. They allowed him to win.

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