Monday, May 06, 2019

Cash versus them.

"On 8 November 2016, in a televised address to the nation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared that Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes, which together accounted for 86% of currency in circulation, would no longer be legal tender," wrote Alexander and Padmanabhan. Modi said that by eliminating cash he will eliminate corruption and counterfeit currency, which will reduce terrorism. "The magnitude of cash in circulation is directly linked to the level of corruption," said Modi in his speech. "Three years on, none of these goals have been met. While terrorist attacks by Maoists and in north eastern states have been declining since 2009, terrorist deaths have increased in Kashmir. Data released by the Ministry of Home Affairs shows a 93% increase "in the number of security personnel killed in terrorist incidents in Jammu and Kashmir and a 176% "rise in the number of terrorist incidents in the state". A landmine, planted by Maoists, killed 15 policemen in Gadchiroli in Maharashtra one week back. As for reducing cash usage, "currency in circulation has surpassed pre-demonetization levels and the cash-to GDP ratio "is inching back towards pre-demonetization levels of 12%". Despite cashless transactions increasing from $60 billion in 2010 to $167 billion in 2017, the ratio of cash-to-economic output was increasing in advanced economies, wrote L Bershidsky. "The average German wallet contains 103 physical euros" and "cash is still the means of payment in 80 percent of point-of-sale transactions" in Germany. Sweden and Denmark are the only developed countries to go largely cashless. These are also countries with negative interest rates which means that people will have to pay to keep money in banks. Going cashless prevents people from hoarding notes at home and negative interest rate forces people to stop saving. Forcing people to have no savings means that the government must provide support in the form of unemployment benefits, medical care and pensions. Using digital payments exclusively allows the state to spy on its citizens habits making us vulnerable to state control. "Philadelphia just passed a bill banning stores from going cashless" because it hurts the poor. "The Boston Consulting Group estimates that banks and payment companies such as Visa and Mastercard currently make $1 trillion annually in fees -- typically paid by the retailer -- for processing electronic payments," wrote R Clark. Data collected about our spending habits can be sold by payment companies and authorities will know our location at every moment. Demonetization "shaved 2 percentage points off quarterly economic growth" and it has not recovered as shown by falling consumption growth. However, demonetization was a "political success story" because the poor were happy that the wealthy lost their black money "even though they suffered from it". The economy lost, the people lost, but politicians gained. That's the way it always is.

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