Tuesday, May 07, 2019

A welcome trade war.

"Just as the world thought that the US and China were headed for a truce on their trade war, US President Donald Trump has sprung a surprise, threatening to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports as early as Friday," wrote an editorial in the Mint. Everyone was caught on the hop because just days before he had tweeted that talks were progressing "very well" and they could be close to an "historic" deal. "Late on Monday, US trade representative Robert Lighthizer accused China of trying to substantively change the text of a deal between the two countries as it neared its final stages," though he insisted that a deal is still possible. "We're not breaking off talks at this point. But for now....come Friday there will be tariffs in place," he said. Stock markets throughout the world fell steeply on the news. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin agreed with Lighthizer that "China had reneged on previous agreements". China is not just a threat to global trade but it has built nuclear submarines capable of lethal second strike on the US and has deployed a large number of missiles capable of destroying US aircraft carriers and bases in Japan and Taiwan. This is an existential threat for India. China is now a bigger threat for NATO than Russia but Europe is so dependent on Chinese trade that it is reluctant to confront it. "It's an economic war," said Sun Microsystems co-founder Scott McNealy. "China is certainly fighting it, and they actually map out their game plan for all to see." China has no intention of respecting international rules, wrote S Deb. "The most celebrated victories in Chinese history are not based on valour, but on deception." "The West thought that freer markets would to lead a flowering of democracy, but the Chinese did not believe either in free markets or in democracy. Using deception, "China would borrow the techniques from the West to develop", while its government "actively sanctioned and encouraged audacious covert programmes to steal technology and Western intellectual property." The FBI has woken up to pervasive Chinese spying so that "30 Chinese professors in the social sciences, heads of academic institutes, and experts who explain government policies have had their visas to the US cancelled in the past year". Economic stimulus in China and softening of monetary policy in the US are creating asset price bubbles, wrote Prof VA Nageswaran. "Given that the current asset price boom cycle, the final denouement too will necessarily be worse than the fallout of the 2008 crisis." By creating a major correction in markets Trump has prevented a collapse later on. China's power depends on its economy. If that collapses it will be great for India. We pray.

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