Saturday, May 25, 2019

It's only words, and words are all I have.

"The finance ministry and other departments have already prepared measures aimed at stimulating the economy that need to be taken by the new government." The budget will "cut personal taxes to put more money in the hands of the middle class, thus persuading people to spend more and drive up demand". Hallelujah. But how? "The Bharatiya Janata Party pledged cash handouts to farmers,  Rs 100 lakh crore ($1.44 trillion) to build roads, railways and other infrastructure, a boost to manufacturing, and a doubling of exports. Those promises , along with tax cuts for middle class Indians, resonated with voters, who gave BJP a majority of the seats in parliament, according to official results on Thursday." Of the Rs 100 trillion, Rs 30 trillion will be spent on transport, Rs 20 trillion on energy, Rs 12 trillion on housing, 10 on health and 9 on defence. "Finding the money to pay for the populist pledges will be Modi's immediate challenge." Private consumption has fallen, which means lower tax collection. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is down and "Any further widening in the fiscal deficit would jeopardize the nation's credit rating. Fitch Ratings Ltd said on Thursday improving the nation's finances will be crucial for the new administration." Pesky furriners. They know more than Indians who are celebrating in their hope for the future. The interim budget in January concealed the fiscal deficit by shifting money from one pocket to another and showing that as revenue. The Rs 11 trillion the government earned by increasing taxes on fuel, taking advantage of low crude oil prices, helped in increasing revenues. Oil is now at around $70 a barrel and high taxes will hit consumers, further reducing spending, and cause anger on the streets. Low retail inflation has helped to bring down interest rate but now that core inflation is also down, underlining the economic weakness, it is beginning to worry the government. To increase spending the government needs money, and that means higher taxes. Thousands of taxpayers were terrorized into paying more than their tax liability by threatening notices. A sudden change in taxes on e-commerce companies hit Amazon and Walmart, which had just bought Flipkart for $16 billion. This after collecting Rs 100 billion in taxes from the sale. Foreign companies have been issued two different tax notices, in case it a company successfully contests the first notice. Modi has failed, or has not tried to end, tax terror. Before talking about reducing taxes Modi should stop changing tax laws at whim and make the laws clear so that we are not at the mercy of tax officials. We need to have a tax on words.

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