Wednesday, April 24, 2019

What happens if the bubble refuses to pop?

"This stock market boom is nearly 10 years old," wrote Prof VA Nageswaran. And yet, "In general, 84% of companies going for an initial public offering (IPO) lack profits. Ten years ago that figure was 33%. The current profitless share offerings match the situation in ... the year 2000." That was the year when the dot.com bubble peaked and the following year it crashed, wiping $5 trillion of investor wealth. Fearing a market correction later in the year IPOs are being brought forward this year. "Ride-hailing apps Uber and Lyft, respectively valued by investment banks at US $120 billion and $15 billion, are to be placed in early 2019 to beat the collapse," Wrote Prof J Colley. "Both are loss makers -- with Uber's losses approaching US $4 billion in 2018 after a US $4.5 billion loss in 2017." If we take technology unicorns, which are start-up companies with valuations of over $1 billion, "11 out of 12 unicorns lack profits". Such is the complacency in the market that, "Mistaking Zoom Technologies, a penny stock, for Zoom the videoconferencing company, investors pushed up the former's share price by nearly 54,000% from $0.005 to $2.70". "Markets tend to undergo manic-depressive cycles" which result in "bull markets, frothiness and and sometimes outright bubbles; eventually however, they overreact to some negative shock by becoming too pessimistic, shedding risk, and forcing a correction or bear market," wrote Prof N Roubini. "Moreover, central banks, particularly the Fed, have become super-dovish again, and this appears to have reversed the tightening of financial conditions that produced the risk-off in late 2018." "The latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofA ML) survey showed 86% of money managers do not believe that the inversion of the US Treasury yield curve signals an impending recession," wrote Kamat and Jethmalani. Inversion of yield curve occurs when yields on short term bonds are higher than on long term ones, signalling a risk of recession in the short term. However, there are many risks, including, "A potential slowdown in China, trade wars, destabilization in the euro area, central bank liquidity traps and an unexpected rise in inflation were pointed out as the top five risks by asset managers in an Institute of International Finance (IIF) survey." President Donald Trump has been asking US Federal Reserve to reduce its Funds Rate to prevent share prices from dropping. Lose monetary policy "has contributed to social unrest, rising income and wealth inequality and to the rise of authoritarian nationalism in countries around the world by creating real wealth effects but phantom economic recoveries," wrote Nageswaran. The Indian government has appointed a retired civil servant as governor of the Reserve Bank to reduce rates. Industrialists borrowed huge sums at low interest rates which they had no intention of repaying, wrote A Mukherjee. Naturally, crony capitalists contribute generously to crony political parties at election time. Is it really a bubble? Or are the professors wrong? 

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