Is anti-incumbency a factor? It did not work in 2009.

The general election in India is starting tomorrow. There is a belief that people tend to vote against the party in power. One study suggested that 'anti-incumbency' is strong in rural populations and in Hindi speaking states, which should be a disadvantage for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP, but it also says that an incumbent from the BJP has a greater chance of winning than one from Congress. However, the BJP has 267 seats in the present Lok Sabha compared to just 44 for the Congress, so even a smaller percentage of loss could translate to a greater loss of seats for the ruling party. Also, the Congress increased its share of seats from 145 in 2004 to 206 in 2009, even though it was the major party in government, with Manmohan Singh as prime minister. Caste is said to play a very important role in Indian elections but class is also important because parties compete to announce subsidies to show how much they care for the poor. Most people may not understand or care, but the Economic Times has published a scorecard for this government. After an initial spurt, economic growth has tapered in the last two years, but GDP per capita has continued to grow. Total tax collection has increased by 200 basis points as a percentage of GDP and there has been a jump in the number of people filing tax returns. However, direct tax collection will be Rs 500 billion short of the target set in the budget. Retail inflation has been comfortably below the 4% target set by the Reserve Bank. This is largely due to a fall in prices of food, especially vegetables, as growth in production has been much higher than population growth, wrote M Nandurkar. Building of roads increased sharply under this government. Elsewhere, figures are not so good. The government has masked the fiscal deficit by forcing public sector units (PSUs) and the Reserve Bank to pay higher dividends, by not paying the Food Corporation of India for food subsidies and by selling shares of one PSU to another and showing it as revenue. Experts have their own views. Agriculture, manufacturing and services are not creating enough jobs, wrote C Bhagat, while companies are unable to fill vacancies because of lack of requisite skills. Education and skilling will increase employment. "History shows that no country has become a miracle economy -- defined as achieving 7 percent GDP growth for over a decade -- without buoyant exports," wrote SA Aiyer. India failed to stop the US from withdrawing zero tariffs on $5.7 billion worth of exports which will benefit our competitors. To grow our economy to the next level we need a state with a $1 trillion economy, wrote Abraham and Verma. Canary Wharf in London is just over 40 hectares in size and generates 50 billion pounds in business every year. Mumbai port is over 900 hectares and could be developed to produce a greater magnitude of wealth. But, only after winning the election.