Wednesday, April 03, 2019

Growth per person better than selective growth.

"Across the world, economists have had to downgrade growth forecasts in most years since the global financial crisis of 2008," wrote R Sharma. Because, "Economists keep basing forecasts on trends established during the postwar miracle years, when growth was boosted by expanding populations, rising productivity and rising debt." "Even during the Industrial Revolution, in the 19th century, the world economy rarely grew faster than 2.5% a year, until the post-World War II baby boom began to rapidly expand the labor force." India was the world's fastest growing major economy in the last financial year, according to the World Bank, and will be so next year as well. India also has a rapidly increasing population and is set to become the most populous nation in the world by 2024. This maybe the reason for the high economic growth rate, given that our labor productivity is very poor. An analysis of 26 economies from 1950 onwards found that in 75% of cases, GDP grows by over 8% when labor productivity growth is higher than 6%. Since independence India's labor productivity growth was below 4% till 2000, peaked at 10.2% in 2010 and dropped to 4.75% in 2016. Part of our very high rates of growth from 2003 to 2011 could be due to enormous amounts of black money generated by various scams which was then invested in real estate. "Between 2002 and 2006 average property prices increased by 16% a year, way ahead of average incomes, and faster even than in the United States." But there was no subprime crisis in India because mortgage levels were very low because a major part of the cost of any property was paid in black money. Despite low economic growth rates, per capita GDP was growing at a higher rate because of falling populations in the US, Europe and Japan, which is why "Americans are content with record low unemployment, benign inflation and 1.4% growth in GDP per capita". Despite very low productivity, "The shrinking size of families in India contributed to India's economic growth in the 1980s and 1990s, a United Nations report has found." However, growing inequality and the growing difference in wage growth between workers and executives has resulted in increasing popularity of socialism among millennials, wrote Prof VA Nageswaran. As long as the economy keeps growing people will be happy but any recession will surely upset people, which is why there is panic at the inverted yield curve in the US. Trying to force economic growth through loose monetary policy will only result in asset price bubbles and and lead to another crisis, wrote Nageswaran. Politicians love to brag about economic growth. Even if they may not understand it.

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