Thursday, April 25, 2019

Pushmepullyou economics. Does it work?

Why is India a poor country? asked M Sabharwal. "India still has poverty because the brilliant politics after 1947 was coupled with nutty economics that sabotaged competition, entrepreneurship and productivity." "Too many Indians work in low productivity geographies (Karnataka has the same GDP as UP with a third of the people), low productivity sectors (50% of our labor force in agriculture only produces 14% of GDP, while IT employs 0.7% of our labor force and produces 8% of GDP)", low-productivity firms and low-productivity skills. Too much regulation with "60,000+ compliance rules, 3,600+ filings, and 5,000+ changes every year" are suffocating the economy. The Congress President Rahul Gandhi announced an income supplement of Rs 6,000 per month to 50 million of the poorest households in India, called NYAY, without increasing taxes or fiscal deficit. In conditional cash transfers (CCT), such Bolsa Familia in Brazil and Prospera in Mexico, payments are linked to children attending school and getting regular health check ups, whereas NYAY is guaranteed, wrote V Thomas. To pay for additional subsidies the economy has to grow at a high rate but, "What's more concerning is the way the RBI is opening the floodgates to liquidity," wrote A Mukherjee. The Reserve Bank (RBI) "has snapped up $10 billion in two auctions in over a month, buying the US currency for reserves and agreeing to reverse the trade in 2022". The RBI buys and sells dollars regularly to stabilise the rupee, which is why our foreign exchange reserves increased to over $400 billion in recent days. Foreign funds invested over Rs 270 billion in our stock market last month. This would tend to make the rupee stronger which would hurt our exports by making them more expensive. So, if the RBI buys and sells dollars anyway why give a commitment to reverse the trade in 2022? How much difference will $10 billion make in a $2.5 trillion economy? Expectations are rising among the young who want jobs "With job security, good pay, benefits", wrote Prof A Banerjee. With enormous disruption expected from Artificial Intelligence a "minimum income guarantee" is essential, to prevent social discord. Superabundant capital has resulted in a new form of business which concentrate on collecting millions of consumers without bothering about profits. They pay little in taxes. The IMF suggested that they should pay a minimum amount of tax to the host country while SA Aiyer suggested a 2-3% on revenues, rather than on profits. India is doing both already. We have a minimum alternative tax on companies that make no profits and taxes on revenue on infrastructure firms, wrote R Jagannathan. Perhaps, that is the problem. Distributing subsidies and increasing liquidity are attempts to increase consumption while putting a lid on creating wealth by imposing too many regulations and taxes. Pushmepullyou economics. Will it work?

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