A US slipstream could pull us along.

Research by Prof B Eichengreen has shown that a country's economic growth tends to stagnate when "average incomes are either around $11,000 or $15,000 a year. This is the famous middle income trap," wrote N Rajadhyaksha. "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that average incomes in China will be $10,098 this year." The initial rapid growth in a poor country is due to rising inputs but the next phase must be based on increasing productivity. China has tried to deal with the problem through financial stimulus which has resulted in fiscal deficit close to 10% of GDP. "Some China bears are convinced that a Minsky Moment is just round the corner." "The China slowdown is an opportunity for India to close the gap." China will be a $14 trillion economy this year and India will be close to $3 trillion, so if we grow 1% faster it could take forever to overtake China unless we undertake economic reforms which push our growth rates up to double digits. But, the Chinese do not play fair. The US is locked in trade negotiations with China over its sly restrictions on US companies, its preference for Chinese companies for state contracts and its blatant theft of intellectual properties. China is expert at making promises and then breaking them as it sees fit. The US is demanding strict enforcement of any deal and the right to retaliate if China tries tricks. China is calculating that President Donald Trump will soften is stance as his re-election in November 2020 comes closer, but if Trump wins next year he could come back harder because he will not stand again. " A high court in Tamil Nadu has lifted a ban on a Chinese app TikTok provided it removes pornography form its contents. "Remember that Indian content creators have always been locked out of the Chinese internet," wrote N Pai. "India can ban TikTok without losing much." There are alternatives but, "On the other hand, ByteDance, on its own admission, loses $500,000 every day it is not available in India. New Delhi must not fritter away the leverage." Do we have the guts? As is usual, China has treated our government with contempt by showing a reduced trade deficit with the mainland, while turning a trade surplus of $3.9 billion with Hong Kong in 2017 to a deficit of $2.7 billion in 2018. "We are amazed at the rise of China but we don't appreciate the role meritocracy has played in in this great miracle," wrote G Das. Meritocracy is a dirty word in India. "China has decent colleges in almost all provinces," wrote SA Aiyer. "By contrast the higher education debate in India is dominated by the provision of quotas for sundry castes." We hope the US wins. That may open doors for us.