Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Too much of anything is not good.

"India's population grew at 1.2% a year between 2010 and 2019, marginally higher than the global average of 1.1% a year in this period, but more than double China's 0.5% a year, according to the United Nations Population Fund's (UNFPA) State of the World Population 2018 report." India is not alone. There has been a baby boom in the developing world, with Niger recording the highest fertility rate, whereas fertility has fallen steeply in developed countries. Developed countries are never going to achieve economic growth rates of the "postwar miracle years, when growth was boosted by expanding populations, rising productivity and exploding debt", wrote R Sharma. With falling fertility, growth will remain subdued, which may not be a bad thing because fewer people means low unemployment and high GDP per capita. Rapid population growth should stimulate high rates of economic growth in poorer countries but report from Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation said that poverty levels in Africa will remain the same because development will not keep up with population growth. UNFPA report also suggested that "The shrinking size of families in India contributed to India's economic growth in the 1980s and 1990s". In 1798, Thomas Robert Malthus predicted that population growth will outstrip food supply, leading to famines. That did not happen as modern methods of farming, with better seeds and refrigeration, resulted in a so much food production that over 2 billion tonnes of food are thrown away each year. Malthus could not see it, but mathematical models suggest that humanity will die off due to climate change if the human population keeps on expanding. In 1348, an epidemic of plague killed millions in Britain. Following this, "Real incomes shot up by 250 percent between 1300 and 1450," said Prof R Tombs. Colonisation of the Americas at the end of the 15th Century, killed so many people, it disturbed earth's climate," said a report by A Koch and colleagues. As agricultural land was taken over by fast growing vegetation it chilled the planet. The worry for politicians is that falling birth rate will mean increasing proportion of old people. With fewer young people paying taxes and more spending on the elderly, economic growth will stop. After decades of discouraging childbirth China is now encouraging people to have more children. Old people in Japan are committing minor crimes to be sentenced to prison where they get free food and company. Reducing population will not improve climate because people will only consume more, wrote L Stone. As for India, "Employment for young people is critical, as is developing public policies for the elderly on pension, services and support, and customised safety nets." The more you divide $2.5 trillion GDP, the less it becomes.

1 comment:

Sakti Deb said...

Thank you.