Monday, April 15, 2019

If top economists can't make sense, how can we?

Retail inflation came in at 2.86% in March, compared to 2.57% in February, which is still well below the target set for the Reserve Bank (RBI) of 4%, plus/minus 2%. Food prices comprise nearly half of the prices of all the goods and services used to calculate retail inflation, so a rise of 0.3%, after "five consecutive months of contraction", is not of much concern. Wholesale price inflation (WPI) rose to 3.18% in March, with food inflation at 5.68% and fuel at 5.41%. Oil companies have been asked not to increase prices of fuel in line with the international price of crude oil, as they did before and during assembly elections in Karnataka last year. The bad news is that industrial production grew at only 0.1% in February, with manufacturing declining by 0.3%, compared to a growth of 8.4% in February last year. Capital goods sector declined by 8.8%, compared to a growth of 16.6% last year. If we produce less we will import more. Although exports increased to record level of $331 billion in the last financial year, imports rose to $507.4 billion so that the trade deficit increased to $176.4 billion. If it wasn't for Indians living abroad and sending money to families in India our current account deficit would have shot up. At $79 billion inward remittances are the highest in the world. Our highest trade deficit is with China, at $59.3 billion in 2017. To mollify India about the huge deficit China narrowed the deficit to $57.4 billion, but the trade surplus of $3.9 billion with Hong Kong in 2017 turned into a deficit of $2.7 billion in 2018. So, combining trade with China and Hong Kong our deficit increased from $55.4 billion in 2017 to $60.1 billion in 2018. Our economic growth is too reliant on domestic consumption and unless exports increase substantially India is unlikely to compete with rich countries, said World Bank Chief Economist for South Asia Region Hans Timmer. "At the same time you've seen also of the last couple of years that the current account deficit widened -- an indication that increasingly growth came from the non-tradable sector -- from the domestic sector, and that makes it difficult to export more," he said. To make matters worse, the US is set to "withdraw zero-duty entry for Indian exports under its Generalized Scheme of Preferences (GSP). wrote SA Aiyer. This will "hit $5.7 billion of Indian exports covering 5,111 tariff lines". "In bilateral GSP talks, US demands were modest." "But the Modi government would not budge an inch." Though the World Bank predicted that India's GDP will expand by 7.5% in 2019-20, IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath expressed doubts about the authenticity of our GDP figures. If inflation is low it means domestic demand is low. Since our economic growth is dependent on domestic consumption how is the GDP growing when demand is falling? Very confusing.

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