Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Why are we growing so fast despite losing money?

2019 started well with a rally in US and global equities, strong growth in the US and an easing in the Chinese slowdown, but Prof N Roubini lists 7 reasons why there could be trouble ahead. Strong wage growth in the US because of a very low unemployment rate of 4% in January 2019 could push inflation up, forcing the Federal Reserve to increase its Funds rate. An unemployment rate of 4.1%-4.7% is considered close to full employment, which leads to debate about whether the Fed should increase Funds rate now or hold off until inflation starts to rise above its target of 2%. In its last meeting in January the Fed left rates unchanged at 2.25%-2.5%, wrote JJ Kinahan, while issuing a statement which read, "In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient." Political stalemate in the US, a rise in interest rate, a trade war with China or a fall in oil prices could hit US stock markets. The Governor of the Bank of England mark Carney has been warning about the disastrous consequences of a no-deal Brexit for Britain. The eurozone is slowing down, with growth expected to be only 0.3% in the first half of this year. Growth in Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, was 1.5% in 2018 but it managed to escape a technical recession in the last quarter. This, despite an export surplus of 228 billion euros in 2018. India on the other hand is expected to grow at 7.3% in 2018-19, according to the World Bank, despite a trade deficit of $141.2 billion from April-December 2018, a jump in current account deficit to 2.7% of GDP in the first half of the current financial year and a fiscal deficit which is expected to be higher than the target of 3.3% for 2018-19. Other countries should learn from us. "Globally, debt-induced economic growth has brought forward growth for quite some time." wrote Prof VA Nageswaran. Central banks have stopped monetary tightening. The Reserve Bank of India just reduced its repo rate by 25 basis points, from 6.5% to 6.25%. Wages in the US are stagnant. "After a 10-year-long expansion and a very tight labour market, the rate of growth in the average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory workers is only 3.4%," but workers will be disappointed because of a "monetary policy that targets inflation in wages but not in asset prices and leverage-enabled growth that favours those with assets, as only they can avail of loans with cheat financing". So, low interest rates help the rich and increase inequality. No wonder 51% of young Americans now believe in socialism. Maybe they are jealous of us.

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