Why be handcuffed by a fiscal council?

"Historically, interim budgets in India have consistently overestimated revenue growth and underestimated expenditure growth," wrote P Bhattacharya, because "the finance ministry's overall record in forecasting projections has been consistently poor under successive finance ministers". "One way to fix these problems is to institute an independent and statutory watchdog to oversee the state of public finances and to come up with its own assessments." A working paper from the International Monetary Fund showed that "the presence of an independent fiscal council tends to boost accuracy of fiscal projections even as it helps countries stick to fiscal rules". That is precisely what politicians in India do not want. "Every political party, while announcing the vote-on-account budget, uses the opportunity to grandstand, launch a mini-manifesto and deliver a political scorecard that is economical with the truth, the extent and degree varying with the leadership," wrote R Singhal. "And yet there are some major embellishments which have become this government's hallmark." "If India has a fiscal council, it would probably have stated the fiscal deficit for this year at 4 percent of the GDP," wrote L Venkatesh. "The central government will borrow Rs 7.1 lakh crore and the states another Rs 5.5 lakh crore. That is a tall Rs 12.5 lakh crore or 25 percent higher borrowing than the current year." In the first two years of its term this government was fiscally prudent but in the last two years it has hidden its profligacy by using extra budgetary financing, wrote Prof VA Nageswaran. In its first budget in 2014 this government promised to do away with "mindless populism", but 5 years later, "Mindless populism is all that the NDA will go to the polls with," wrote Y Aiyer. "Fiscal prudence has been compromised in favour of pleasing every conceivable vote bank the NDA can appeal to." "The worst part is that there isn't really any great crisis that would justify breaching fiscal rules, only electoral considerations," wrote M Sharma. "Perhaps because, when judged by his own promises, Modi's term has been a failure." In his election campaign Prime Minister Modi promised to create 10 million new jobs, of which the Congress keeps reminding him. The latest report from the National Sample Survey Office said that not only has unemployment increased but the Labor Force Participation Rate has fallen to 49.8%. The government suppressed the report but it was leaked after the acting Chairman of the National Statistical Commission PC Mohanan resigned. Then a flunkey claimed that the report was not released because it was a draft but Mohanan maintains that the report becomes final once he has signed it. The higher the education level the higher the unemployment rate. It will be difficult to distribute handouts if a fiscal council disapproves in the background. That is why no party will appoint one.