Wednesday, February 20, 2019

If everyone is bankrupt will it cancel out?

Last month Jet Airways defaulted on its bank loans, with the State Bank of India (SBI) being the largest lender. Five planes obtained on lease were grounded and 19 flights canceled as lessors attempted to repossess those aircraft. Why is Jet in such trouble? Because, as a full service airline, it needed one rupee more per seat kilometer than its low cost rival Indigo, wrote A Mukherjee. When Indigo reduced prices by 0.9 rupees per kilometer Jet tried to compete by reducing its fares by 0.3 rupees per kilometer and ended up charging passengers less than the cost of flying. Prime Minister Modi cannot let Jet go bankrupt with the loss of hundreds of jobs so close to general election. On the other hand, if SBI, a public sector bank takes a haircut to keep Jet flying Modi will be accused of helping the rich while ignoring the poor. In an effort to rescue the airline banks are converting loans into equity at the cost of one rupee. This move may reduce its debt burden by Rs 25-30 billion but its total debt is around Rs 85 billion so it will need massive funding to plug the gap and give it operating capital to pay its staff, wrote A Mukherjee. Converting debt into equity means Jet is being taken over by public sector banks and if the government uses money from the National Investment and Infrastructure Fund it will amount to a de facto nationalisation of the airline. The taxpayer is already having to grapple with Rs 550 billion debt of the national carrier Air India. Last year the government tried to sell off Air India to get its debt off its books but there were no offers. Whether the lack of interest is due to Air India planes being used by politicians for private flights we do not know. Rescuing Jet with public funds means going in the opposite direction. Indigo is the market leader with 43% market share, while Air India, Jet and Spice Jet have 12% each and Go Air has 9%. The only solution to Jet's problem is to merge it with Air India, wrote R Jagannathan. This move will provide a market valuation for Air India as it will get listed with Jet, costs will be reduced through consolidation of assets and pricing power will improve by reducing competition. In a commendable exercise Air India has reduced its employee-to-aircraft ratio to 106 which can compare with the best in the industry. The taxpayer will not only have to pay for Jet Airways but Indian Railways may need massive cash injection after the election. The Railways is to hire 127,000 new workers to add to the 1.3 million it already has. The Railways spends Rs 111.51 to earn Rs 100, so adding so many employees will only increase its losses. Government employees are to be given an additional 3% as Dearness Allowance. 'Dearness' means 'expensive'. When retail inflation is said to be 2.05% where is the dearness? To pay for all this the Reserve Bank is to transfer Rs 280 billion to the government. So, after the elections we will have a bankrupt Jet Airways, a bankrupt Air India, a bankrupt government and a bankrupt Reserve Bank. How jolly.

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