Monday, February 04, 2019

There must be no guarantee for amnesty.

After a surprise tornado hit Cuban capital Havana last week killing 4 people, injuring 195 and damaging 3,513 homes, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro shipped 100 tons of aid to Cuba to assist with the rebuilding. Venezuela's economy has collapsed with inflation running at over 80,000%, shortage of basic food and medicines, and growing debt. While shipping aid to Cuba Maduro refuses to allow humanitarian aid into his own country, probably to show that there is no crisis in the country. Plans to provide humanitarian aid to a starving population is an "imperialist intervention", according to Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez. Major European countries, including France, Spain, Germany, Britain, Portugal, Sweden, Denmark, Austria and the Netherlands recognized Juan Guido as the interim president of Venezuela, after the expiry of an ultimatum to announce new presidential election within 7 days. Maduro refused to accept the ultimatum saying, "We don't accept ultimatums from anyone. It's as if I went to the EU and said, 'I give you seven days to recognize the Republic of Catalonia of if not, we will take measures." The US has agreed to Guaido's request humanitarian aid but, since Maduro still controls the army, aid centers will be set up in surrounding countries bordering Venezuela. "Guiado announced creation of 'humanitarian aid' collection centers in Cucuta, Brazil and one Caribbean island. Serious provocation in progress as a pretext for military aggression in Venezuela," said Rodriguez on Twitter. 23,000 Cubans work in Venezuela and have been asked to stay there. Venezuela has been gradually spiraling downwards ever since Hugo Chavez became president and started a program of redistribution to the poor of the country. That was tolerable as long as crude oil prices were high but when prices dropped government finances became impossible. If the US and its allies set up aid centers on the border of Venezuela it could create tension with the Venezuelan army. "The army will stand by to defend the sovereignty of Venezuela," said Freddy Bernal, a senior government official. What happens if thousands of people flock to the border to access humanitarian aid? Will the army stop them from crossing, and by what means? Once an exodus starts it will be impossible to control, as the fall of the Berlin Wall showed. What is completely inexplicable is that Maduro still has support among the poor, who are coming out in rival protests. Is it because the poor are used to scraping a living and so are not as affected as the middle and upper classes or is it schadenfreude: let the rich suffer even though we are suffering even more? Just as the poor in India supported demonetization even though they suffered a tremendous fall in earnings. Politicians always get away with their crimes. There must be no amnesty for Maduro. 

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