Saturday, May 19, 2018

It maybe good for us, even if it is bad.

"At the last count, 1,157 economists had sent a letter to US President Donald Trump warning him not to repeat the mistake of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s, wrote Nageswaran and Thiruvadanthai. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was passed in 1930, after the stock market crash of 1929, to protect American agriculture and industry. However, tariffs had been raised to an average of 40% by the Fordney-McCumber Act of 1922. Other nations retaliated to Smoot-Hawley by raising tariffs on US goods and global trade fell by 66% between 1929 and 1934. "Trade policies driven by domestic political lobbying and special interests are beggar-thyself policies," wrote Prof D Rodrik. "If we manage our own economies well, new trade agreements will be largely redundant." Globalization has produced both winners and losers, and the elite now agree that losers must be compensated. But, "The time for compensation has come and gone," wrote Rodrik. "Today's consensus concerning the need to compensate globalization's losers presumes that the winners are motivated by enlightened self-interest." They promise compensation before a new trade policy but, "Once the policy is in place, they have little interest in following through, either because reversal is costly all around or because the underlying balance of power shifts towards them." Trump mainly blames China for the loss of jobs in the US. Between 2001 and 2015 US lost 3.4 millions jobs because of unfair trade practices by China. When China joined the WTO in 2001, "it had promised to sign the Government Procurement Agreement, which requires government purchases to be made on a non-discriminatory and transparent basis." Sixteen years later China has not done so. China pledged not to "militarize the islands it has created in the South China Sea. But, it proceeded to do exactly that." A Harvard Harris poll of March 2018, found that 55% of Americans feel that trade agreements cost jobs, 61% agree with Trump on imposing tariffs on imports, 67% feel that the US should punish China for forcing US companies to give up technology secrets, 75% feel that the US should impose tariffs to reduce trade deficit with China and 68% said that the American government should buy American goods and hire American workers. Whatever happens elsewhere India will suffer because a large part of the economy depends of government spending. The stock market could crash, according to Credit Suisse. If China's economy collapses it would be great for us. Even if we suffer. 

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