Friday, May 11, 2018

Shouldn't we know the NAV of the rupee everyday?

By the end of December last year bad loans at Indian banks had crossed Rs 8.40 trillion and was predicted to cross Rs 9.50 trillion by the end of March. Stressed assets were expected to rise to Rs 11.50 trillion. Out of total loans of $178 billion to the power sector $53 billion are stressed and of that $38 billion will turn into defaults. "Between April 2014 and December 2017, public sector banks recovered a pitiful 10.7% of the massive Rs 7 trillion worth of loans they wrote off during the period, shows a reply to a question in the Rajya Sabha" wrote SA Aiyar. The problem is not limited to public sector banks. Private banks use ingenious methods to hide bad loans, such as by issuing a loan to another company with the understand that it will be passed on to the company in default, selling bad loans to cooperative banks or issuing two loans at once, one of which is held back and given to the company to pay back its bad loan, wrote T Bandopahyay. How to stop bad behavior by banks? "How a few rules can get banks to behave better," suggested H Husain. We have to understand how other industries "prevent fraud". "For example, all airlines that were flying Airbus A320neos using a certain make of engine were asked to ground their planes. This happened without a single tragedy occurring (thankfully)." Even the possibility of any accident was averted. What about banks? "The fact is that banks can manufacture money." We may think it is our money but it is actually a promissory note from a public limited company, a bank. "Sovereign money or currency is barely 13% of the total. Even the government borrows from banks." Banks use our deposits to lend to companies and manufacture more money to cover bad loans. "A rupee today is worth only 65 paise of the rupee on 2011. It is in fact the net asset value (NAV) of a rupee and the performance metric of all banks put together." Public sector banks have to be recapitalized by the government which owns them which will convert the loans into fiscal deficit and increase sovereign risk, wrote H Vora. So what to do? Force banks to raise capital from share markets by limiting how much of our deposits they can lend. Declare loans as non-performing assets as soon as there is a default. Because interest on debt is tax deductible companies prefer to borrow, which should be discouraged. The only way to stop fraud at banks is to privatize public sector banks, wrote Prof S Rajagopalan. That is never going to happen. Indian politicians have feudal mindset. They issue orders to banks to lend to poorer sections of society, such as agriculture, which bank officials do not understand. Politicians have been using depositors money to buy votes since the days of Indira Gandhi and used to be called 'loan melas' at one time. The NAV of the rupee will keep on dropping. Hope it doesn't go down to zero.

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