Will outsiders control 2019 results?

"The latest poll conducted in May 2018 showed that if snap Lok Sabha elections were to be held today, only 34% of people would prefer Narendra Modi to return as Prime Minister, down from 37% in January and 44% a year ago," wrote T Kundu. Donald Trump's popularity rating is at 40%, apparently  the most unpopular and the second most admired among recent presidents. Elections are never head to head and it is possible to win more seats with less popular votes, as BJP did in the Karnataka assembly elections this month. BJP won 104 seats with 36.2% of votes, while Congress came second with 78 seats despite getting 38% of the votes. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections BJP won an absolute majority with 282 seats, with 31% of votes, while the Congress came second with 19.3% of votes but got only 44 seats. The BSP came third with 4.1% of vote share but won no seats at all, while the AIADMK won 37 seats with 3.3% of vote share. Did Jill Stein cost Hillary Clinton the election in 2016 by taking away votes in a number of key states where the margin was close, and did Ralph Nader help George W Bush to defeat Al Gore in 2000? So, popularity rating in a multi-party, first-past-the-post system of election does not indicate who will win in 2019. "Data from consumer confidence surveys conducted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) show that consumer sentiments have been on the decline since 2016." "Poorer respondents were less likely to report any improvement in their household income or employment scenario compared to richer respondents." The poor are the vote bank. K Das is more sanguine. Despite higher oil prices and tightening of interest rate "India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth will likely remain over 7% in FY19, making it the fastest growing major economy in the world." Inflation and inflation expectation will remain subdued, with the "worst case for CPI inflation looks to be about 5-5.5% average for this and the next fiscal year". The RBI will maintain real interest rate at 1.75% which will create macro stability and the combined fiscal deficit of center and states will be contained because of increased collections from GST. RBI has enough foreign currency reserve to cover imports for 11.5 months so even if it uses some of that to defend the rupee it is not a problem. "Modi backed up his campaign slogan of "minimum government, maximum governance" by implementing a slew of reforms in his first year, including lifting restrictions on foreign investments in many sectors and streamlining subsidies," wrote S Goel. Ultimately, the price of oil, US interest rate and the dollar may decide whether Modi wins in 2019. Not in his control.