Will the regime become stronger or weaker?

President Donald Trump withdrew his nation from the Iran nuclear deal, just as he had promised during his campaign, and reimposed sanctions. "It is clear to me that we cannot prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb under the decaying and rotten structure of the current agreement," said Trump. "This was a horrible one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made. It didn't bring calm, it didn't bring peace, and it never will." In response, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said, "it is possible that we could face some problems in the coming two to three months, but we will overcome this". Earlier he had said," If America leaves the nuclear accord, this will entail historic regret for it." Maybe not. The Iranian currency has been in free fall in the expectation of Trump's decision. The official exchange rate against the dollar was 37,000, but the black market rate was 60,000, so in early April the government combined both rates and set an exchange rate of 42,000 rials to the dollar. Following Trump's announcement the rial collapsed to 65,000 to the dollar and could go as low as 110,000 in the next few months, with inflation rising to 3 times the present level. There were riots against the government in Iran earlier this year. Unemployment in rural areas is 45% and, in some areas it has reached 60%. Previous protests were by the middle-class and by students but this time, more ominously, protests were by farmers and workers from "rural and religiously conservative villages and towns". Protesters were shouting "Death to the dictator", about the Supreme Leader, and "Death to Hezbollah", which would have been unthinkable in the past.  Hezbollah and its associates have just won more than half the seats in Lebanon's elections, prompting Hassan Nasrallah to claim "mission is accomplished". Barack Obama who had negotiated the deal criticized Trump as "so misguided". So desperate was Obama to strike any kind of deal that he pardoned Iranians convicted of smuggling nuclear parts from the US to help build centrifuges and the Justice Department dropped charges and international arrest warrants against 14 individuals angering agents and prosecutors who had spent "years, if not decades, working to penetrate the global proliferation networks" of Iranian agents. Present Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo urged his Republican colleagues in Congress to vote against the nuclear deal in 2015. Obama also reached a quiet deal with China to supply coolant technology which will make their nuclear submarines quieter. With Assad's victory in the civil war in Syria, Iran's influence now stretches through Iraq to Syria and Lebanon, threatening Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel. If there is a regime change in Iran support for the Hezbollah, the Shia government in Iraq, and for Assad will disappear. Or so Trump is hoping.