Wednesday, May 09, 2018

If Ramdev can do it why can't others?

"The Economic Survey of 2017-18 identified exports as the biggest source of upside potential for growth in FY18," wrote A Agarwal and S Chopra. "The optimism seems appropriate with exports growing for the fifth consecutive month in January." The US Federal Reserve is going to increase interest rates which will lead to an outflow of dollars. This usually leads to a weaker currency and a fall in economic growth, but it will benefit exports. During the 'taper tantrum' in 2013 the rupee fell from 54.39 to 62.68 to the dollar. Exports "grew at 12.98% on year-on-year basis in Q2 2013-14, the highest in a quarter for the five-year period between 2012-13 and 2016-17." The "inevitable trade war between the US and China" is an opportunity for India to take over low cost manufacturing. Increase in demand from the EU, which grew at 2.5% in 2017, and diversification of manufacturing in China towards high technology are other favorable factors. Of course, to export you need to manufacture high quality goods in great quantities. "More than 90% of entrepreneurs and establishments in the manufacturing sector in India fall in the small enterprises category," wrote E Ghani. "More than 80% of employment is generated by small enterprises in the unorganized sector." The productivity of small enterprises is low and they cannot compete with huge factories churning out large volumes in China. Poor electricity supply, lack of qualified labor and a corrupt bureaucracy make it very difficult to set up any business. Strangely, small enterprises constitute 85.1% of businesses in Japan, medium enterprises make up 14.6% and large enterprises a mere 0.3%. Total exports of Japan were $788 billion in 2016, while imports were $656 billion, with a positive trade balance of $21.6 billion in net exports. India exported a tiny $260 in 2016, while we imported $357 billion. If we take out export of petroleum products our exports have not grown at all, wrote M Chakaravarty, while imports, other than oil, gold and silver, jumped. Imports of electronic goods increased by 12.2% year-on-year, showing our weakness in manufacturing. "One, there aren't that many of the big and modern firms that are investing a huge amount in R&D," said W Maloney of World Bank. "And the vast majority of firms in India don't have the capability to do R&D." The main reason why there is a lack of big business is because rules keep changing according to whims of politicians and civil servants, wrote R Seth. There is only one wholly Indian business that is taking on the foreign challenge, and that is Patanjali run by yoga guru Baba Ramdev. Perhaps we need a Patanjali management institute.

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