Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Mexico seems far better off from here.

"India would do well to learn from the Mexican experience," wrote N Ramachandran. "Even though Mexico's per capita GDP in purchasing power parity terms has climbed gradually over the years, making it an upper middle-income country, it is in the grip of a middle-income trap." "The resource rich Mexican macro-economy is very stable, with a primary fiscal surplus and low inflation helped by a credible central bank." India almost always runs a fiscal deficit and the deficit has been allowed increase to 3.5% of GDP from the promised 3.2%. The government expects a difference of Rs 5.94 lakh trillion between its revenues and expenditure, which it will borrow from the market. "By end-March 2018, the outstanding loans of the Central government are estimated to hit Rs 82.32 lakh crore. That's up from Rs 57 lakh crore five years ago and amounts to 49.3% of the nominal GDP," wrote A Krishnan. "In short, servicing interest payouts alone will take up 32% of Centre's earnings this year, while pensions and subsidies absorb another 23%." Telecom companies have lost a combined $23 billion in India while the number of users has increased from less than 2 million to over a billion, an increase of 61,436%. "Too many licenses, too little spectrum, high taxes and supply-constrained airwaves auctions has made this a very expensive market to operate in," said SC Bernstein. All because of enormous need to raise revenue. As opposed to Mexico, inflation is always a worry in India. After falling for three months retail inflation rose to 4.58% in April. Mexico exports oil and international price of crude has moderated a bit recently after rising to levels not seen since early 2014. India imports most of its oil and taxes it heavily raising fuel prices to record levels. This is expected to feed into retail inflation eventually. The Indian rupee has been the worst performing currency this year and the RBI is expected to shore up the rupee by issuing NRI bonds, as it has done before. "We expect the RBI to raise $30-35 billion by issuing a fourth tranche of NRI bonds in 2018, with oil breaching $70 a barrel," said I Dasgupta. The RBI has been selling dollars to stop the rupee from falling too fast which has resulted in tightening liquidity and rising bond prices, wrote T Bandopadhyay. India is as corrupt as Mexico with 75% of households feeling that corruption increased in the last one year. India also has a problem with education too. More than a million candidates refused to sit a school-leaving exam when they were not allowed to cheat. When education loses value then 10,300 people, some with LLB and M Tech degrees, applied for 24 posts of drivers in Gujarat, the Prime Minister's home state. Finally we have 1,300 million people, while Mexico has a mere 123 million. Mexico seems far, far better off.

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