Friday, September 16, 2016

To get rich we need to copy rich countries.

With a GDP at just over $2 trillion and a population of 1.3 billion India is a poor country. At present the per capita income is $1,500 which will have to increase to $6,000-7,000 for us to become a middle income nation. Not easy when 400 million people, greater than the entire population of the US, are living in abject poverty. At present 65% of the population is below the age of 35 years, presumably working and paying taxes, while only 9% are over 60 years of age. By 2030 those above the age of 60 years will be 12.5%, reaching 19.4% by 2050. At the same time smaller families mean fewer children to look after the elderly and as the economy changes children move away leaving large numbers of elderly on their own. At the same time the total lack of state pension or health assistance makes retirement a miserable time. Poverty is not a curse for everybody. Politicians can win elections by promising social schemes to help the poor and large numbers of civil servants on exorbitant salaries are required to administer the schemes, which may require visits to exotic foreign locales, with wives, for study purposes. Poor people need 3.1 million NGOs to alleviate their suffering, startling even our Supreme Court judges. What is the importance of aging of the population? Aging of the population reduces labor productivity and causes GDP growth to slow down. On the other hand the consequence of a booming population on land, food production, need for fresh water, recurrent epidemics and the downward pressure on wages is keeping millions trapped in poverty. In India the gap in prosperity between rich states and poor ones is growing, Kerala being 4 times richer than Bihar. Although the authors refuse to draw any connection, the poorest states in India have the highest fertility rates - 3.4 in Bihar, 3.1 in UP and 2.9 in MP. Bengal is an outlier, being poor but with a fertility rate of only 1.6. Is there any proof that reducing the number of people will increase prosperity? An epidemic of plague in 1348 decimated the population of Britain. Real incomes grew by 250% between 1300 and 1450. Some 60 million people died in World War II, mostly young men, but the post-war reconstruction led to an economic boom which has not been seen since. We need to reduce our population drastically. Will it be a disaster as it is being made out to be? Maybe not. Only 27% of women are working so there are vast millions being wasted. Old people could be encouraged to continue working. Retired people could be paid to run creches so that women can work without worry. Unlike war and pestilence we have lots of time to adjust. All rich countries have small populations. Let us join them.

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