Sunday, September 25, 2016

If the US learns from Israel why not India?

In his monthly radio broadcast to the nation the Prime Minister, Modi promised that those involved in the attack on Uri, in Kashmir, will be punished but he did not specify how. He also promised to exact revenge against Pakistan. How? By eradicating poverty. That is not as silly as it sounds. Pakistan is a failed state where the army has vast business interests, worth an estimated $20 billion, most probably a gross underestimate. With a nominal GDP of around $285 billion, the army controls over 10% of the economy. At $2.2 trillion India's GDP is about 8 times that of Pakistan. If we grow our economy and reduce poverty tax collections will increase and the government will be able to spend more on defense, as China is doing. It will vastly increase our soft power, as business with India creates wealth for other nations. China has gained a lot of support at international forums by its "no strings attached" policy for foreign aid. That is for the long term. But what about the short term? We cannot have Pakistan sheltering, training and arming terrorists to cross into our country at will. Shashank Joshi, a research fellow in London writes that Indians are envious of Israel's tough response against terror. Most of the top political leaders of Israel have served in the army, it spends a lot on research and its intelligence agency, the Mossad, is spread all over the world. But Israel has not always been successful, as in the war against the Hezbollah in 2006 in Lebanon. But India is different to Israel. How? "India aspires to a UN security council council seat, Nuclear Suppliers Group membership, and recognition as a great power. Israel seeks none of these things," writes Joshi. India will not become a member of the Security Council by begging. Every permanent member is a nuclear weapons state and keeps them ready as part of their nuclear deterrence doctrine, which relies on all out nuclear response in case of a nuclear attack. We just keep on repeating a "no first use" policy. We have to link that with total assured destruction of Pakistan as nuclear deterrence, especially the top brass of the army and the ISI. They maybe mad dogs, but are certainly not suicidal. China will block membership of the NSG by linking it to membership for Pakistan as well. Israel is probably too tiny to be a great power in the world but when your enemies are terrified of you, despite being 20 times in number, then you are a great power for your people. "But Israel has no silver bullet to the problem of cross-border, state-sponsored terrorism," opines Joshi. Israel has built a wall that has cut cross-border attacks by 90%. We should ask Israel to construct a fence along the border with Pakistan, lay land mines along it and construct an Iron Dome defense, which even the US finds attractive. It will save money on funerals for our soldiers. 

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