Monday, December 29, 2014

2014 ends as it began.

Perhaps it is a good thing that things do not change much for us in India. After the 10 years of plunder, misuse of taxpayer money and economic destruction by the Congress and its associates it is reassuring that India is getting no worse. In test cricket our valiant players lost to New Zealand by 40 runs in February, went on to lose the series against England by 3-1 and are battling to save the third test, having lost the first two against Australia. They are at 105 for 4 at tea, having been set 384 to win, with Virat Kohli out to a gentle loosener. It is as if having scored a century in the first innings, which secures his place in the team, there is no need to battle hard on the fifth day. As with our cricketers so with our politicians. Although the BJP has absolute majority in the Lok Sabha the opposition blocked legislation in the Rajya Sabha, not by reasoned debate as they were elected to do, but by rowdy behavior, just as the BJP had been doing for the last 4 years. And just like the Congress did the BJP has resorted to passing ordinances, which means that the government gets to do whatever it pleases without our objections or suggestions being heard. Since an ordinance has to be ratified by the parliament in the next session it does not breed confidence in investors. The government could call a joint sitting of both houses of the parliament where it would have the requisite majority to pass all bills but that might enrage the opposition even more and the resulting pandemonium would preclude all business. Just as the previous Finance Minister went on whining about high interest rates so is the present one. Just like the previous Finance Minister, P Chidambaram, the present incumbent, A Jaitley was a high-priced lawyer in his previous avatar, which means that he is equally adept at confusing black with white. High interest rates are not the cause. They are the result of double digit inflation and uncontrolled fiscal and current account deficits engineered by the Congress, led by a man who actually claimed to have an Economic Tripos ( whatever that means ) from Cambridge and a D Phil from Oxford. What these exalted gentlemen seem unable to grasp is that there will be no investment unless there is demand and there can be no demand if inflation and extortionate taxes are emptying our wallets. If the Retail Inflation was at 4.38% in November it does not mean that consumer goods are getting cheaper. It merely means that prices are not rising as fast as before because a Rs 10 rise of an article costing Rs 100 means a 10% rise but a Rs 10 rise of an article costing Rs 200 is a rise of 5%. This is known as the base effect and in absolute terms the consumer is having to spend equally higher. At least we are not hurtling downhill as with the Congress. A large peg to that.

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