The power of sanctions may not be forever.

After 50 years of trade sanctions the US may normalise relations with Cuba, although that is not a certainty, given the Republican majority in both houses of the incoming Congress. It may not be such a big deal because several South American countries are more anti-American than tiny Cuba. In 1994 the US lifted its embargo against Vietnam after losing the war 19 years earlier. Vietnam's crime? It was not helping to discover the remains of US soldiers Missing In Action during the war. Not only was there no reparations paid for the hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians massacred by indiscriminate bombing, millions maimed by landmines and vast tracts of the country poisoned with dioxin the US imposed sanctions for the remains of some dead soldiers. The US imposed sanctions on India after nuclear test while continuing to supply arms to Pakistan with which to kill Indians. Sanctions against Iran has not stopped its frantic rush towards developing nuclear weapons though they might have stopped Israel and Saudi Arabia mounting a joint attack against Iran's nuclear facilities, setting off a regional conflagration. Sanctions against Russia, boosted by a 45% fall in the value of oil, seem to have been remarkably successful. The value of the ruble has collapsed by 45% despite a dramatic jump in interest rate from 10.5% to 17% by the central bank. The share market collapsed by 11.5% although it has recovered somewhat from its lows. Russia's crime? Helping the eastern half of Ukraine to resist an all out attack by a fascist government in Kiev, created by an armed coup against an elected president, organised by western countries. So will the US manage to bring about a ' regime change ' in Moscow. There is reason to believe that the Soviet Union broke up when the price of oil fell by 30% from 1988 to 1992 but today's Russia is very different. The Soviet Union was a collective of very disparate countries held together by force but today's Russia is more of a homogeneous nation with very small pockets of resistance, such as in Chechnya, which are easy to contain. When Russia defaulted on its debt in 1998 US Federal Reserve had to spend $3.6 billion to rescue Long-Term Capital Management, a hedge fund managed by Nobel Prize winners. Several European banks have high exposure to Russian debt and will suffer if Russia defaults again. Already the ECB is battling to stop the European Union falling into deflation so will it be able to bail out these banks. Emerging economies are seeing their currencies and stock markets plummet. So does the US think that it can carry the global economy by itself? US banks may have to face $550 billion of bad loans quite soon. If its economy weakens the US may lose its power of sanctions. It may suddenly find that it needs all the friends it can get.