Blinking competition between Russia and Ukraine.

Apparently the latest peace deal in Ukraine is holding. Speaking in Sydney, Ukrainian President, Petro Poroshenko confirmed that the peace was holding and that " Ukrainians died for the right to be Europeans." Not true. Innocent civilians are being killed by Ukrainian soldiers because they do not want to join Europe. So far 4,300 civilians have been killed by aerial bombing, artillery shells and shooting by the Ukrainian armed forces. Their crime? They are Russian speakers and do not want Ukraine to join NATO which will bring US forces right to the Russian border. Not very different from Bashar al-Assad. Western politicians are cock-a-hoop because they think that the recent peace is a capitulation by Putin because the Russian economy has been weakened by sanctions and the fall in the price of oil. Russia is in a recession. Inflation is at 9.4% because of import restrictions and the fall in the value of the ruble, prompting the central bank to raise interest rate to 10.5%. But Ukraine is not so hot either. It has to find $15 billion sharpish if it is to avoid bankruptcy. Its economy shrank by 1.1% in the first quarter, 4.7% in the second and 5.3% in the third quarter, a predicted fall of 7% for the year. The irony is that this was the exact figure that Russia offered to Ukraine last year along with an offer of cheap gas, which would have amounted to $20 billion. It was when Yanukvych accepted the Russian offer in preference to Europe that the western powers engineered an armed insurrection by co-opting the extreme right wing nationalist Svobada and the neo-Nazi Right Sector thugs who react violently towards television critics. Jews in Odessa prepared to flee, to avoid being massacred, as government forces approached. Europe and the IMF are scrambling to support Ukraine's economy but only on condition that the government commits to a restructuring program as dictated by the IMF. Everyone knows how harsh that can be and the Ukraine government has backed out twice previously, probably not wanting the people to find out that joining Europe is not going to be all milk and honey as they have been promised. The European Central Bank is desperately trying to avoid deflation by providing money to banks, almost for free. If the bank provides money to Ukraine why not Greece which is again in trouble, with the stock market falling 13% last week. Private lenders will not want to touch Ukraine government bonds unless they are backed by the IMF or the ECB. Russia bought $3 billion worth of Euro bonds from the Ukraine government last year on condition that it can demand repayment if the debt to GDP ratio rises above 60. The ratio is set to rise to 90. So who is blinking, Russia or Ukraine?