Thursday, October 30, 2014

An all out economic war or a slow collapse?

The Federal Reserve in the US has stopped its massive bond buying program, known as Quantitative Easing. The aim was to flush banks with cash to force them to lend to businesses. By reducing the supply of bonds the Fed pushed up bond prices, which meant yields on 10 year bonds are at all time lows, in an effort to lower long term interest rates. However, some experts believe that instead of depending solely on monetary easing the US government should have resorted to fiscal stimulus by increasing spending on infrastructure. They say that banks simply hoarded the cash, so that they are sitting on $2.7 trillion, instead of lending to small businesses while large companies, with high cash balance, bought back their own shares to return cash to shareholders. There is no doubt that asset prices, such as those of stocks and real estate, have jumped while wages have remained stagnant, as high unemployment has reduced the bargaining power of workers, thus increasing inequality between the rich and the poor. In a recent speech Fed Chairman, Janet Yellen said that wealth inequality is worse than income inequality. In 1989 the top 5% of households held 54% of the total wealth reported but this had increased to 63% by 2013 whereas the lower half of all households collectively held 3% of all wealth in 1989 which has fallen to just 1% in 2013. Others say that companies are refusing to repatriate their foreign earnings because they will have to pay tax at 35% while some companies are borrowing large sums from banks because interest rates are so low. This was the third round of quantitative easing, stock prices fell each time the first 2 rounds ended, so some are predicting that share prices will start falling when the Fed stops buying bonds. In all the Fed has spent $4.45 trillion on its easing program which will keep interest rates low for a prolonged period. A large part of this stimulus came to emerging markets, increasing asset prices and making other currencies stronger relative to the dollar. Emerging market central banks bought up dollars to make their currencies weaker and to build up reserves. Now that the Fed has stopped buying bonds will asset prices and currencies fall. The dollar is already stronger against most currencies. As imports get cheaper in the US will it encourage US consumers to go on a shopping binge again, increasing the trade deficit and building up debts, we do not know. The Eurozone is in danger of deflation as even Germany is slowing down but European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi is hesitating to start buying bonds because of the focus on wealth inequality after a book by Prof Thomas Piketty. There is a threat of disinflation over many countries. Inflation is very high in India and will fall with falling commodity prices, which is great but a lot will depend on the rupee and asset prices. As each country tries to cope will there be a global crash? We can only be spectators.

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