Here might is always right.

With general elections in 6 days political parties have been busy selecting candidates, many with long criminal records. The more villainous a fellow the more black money he has to spend and the more thugs he has to scare off opponents. It is all very logical. It is the job of the Election Commission to ensure that elections are fair, with no cheating, booth capturing or threatening people from voting. So like Caesar's wife the EC must be squeaky clean, right? Turns out that the EC can take away our cars at will. For the sacred cause of election duty. And you cannot refuse. In 2012, Shabbir Pathan of Surat had to write off his off-roader after 25 days of continuous driving. Of course, they will not pay any compensation. Don't be silly. This time he is hiding his SUV. In February the Supreme Court commuted the death sentences of 3 men involved in the assassination of Mr Rajiv Gandhi. The Court was anguished by the fact that their mercy petition had been languishing for 11 years and the poor fellows were being held in prison. While these men were being fed, clothed, treated and entertained with taxpayer money for 11 years there will be no justice for the 14 innocent people who died in the same bomb blast that killed Mr Gandhi. The so called ' juvenile ' who was the most bestial and perverted rapist of ' Nirbhay ' in a Delhi bus in 2012 has been sentenced to a derisory 3 years in a correctional home where presumably he will receive lots of tender loving care. Such kindness for the young. Sadly the same kindness did not extend to Ruchika Girhotra who was only 14 years old when sexually attacked by Rathore, which makes him a pedophile, and who received just one year in prison but was let out on parole after serving only 6 months. This after huge public protests. In that case the media led the cover-up by consistently referring to her as a teenager, thus hiding the fact that she was a child. A 19 year old is also a teenager but is considered an adult. While Ramalinga Raju is enjoying marriage parties after confessing to fraud, Subrata Roy is languishing in jail because he has been asked to provide bail of Rs 100 billion. This when there is no evidence that Mr Roy actually cheated anybody, the one man who complained against him cannot be traced and people are still investing in his firms. However writing all this is hazardous. Our judges are very touchy when it comes to themselves. Justice does not mean only punishing a criminal but providing peace to the victim. Sadly victims suffer twice, once from the criminal and then from our judges.

Billionaires do not indicate wealth.

A report titled ' The Wealth Report of 2014 ' by Real Estate Consultants, Knight Frank says that for every billionaire in India there are just 26 Ultra High Net Worth Individuals or UHNI who would probably be just dollar millionaires. In China there are 44 UHNI per billionaire, in Malaysia it is 37, for Asia it is 84 while the ratio for the world is 100 UHNI per billionaire. The ratio for Japan is a whopping 609 UHNI per billionaire while for Brazil it is 129 and even South Africa has 119 UHNI per billionaire. The number of billionaires in India has risen from 23 in 2003 to 60 in 2013, during the tenure of this Congress led government. It is instructive that the report is by real estate consultants because most of the growth in the economy in the last 10 years has been due to the phenomenal rise in the prices of land and properties. Investment in gold has grown by 3.3% per year in the last 30 years and investment in shares has grown by 8.45% per year. That means that Rs 300,000 invested in gold in 1984 would have grown to around Rs 1.2 million today and if invested in shares would be around Rs 5 million today. But if Rs 300,000 was invested in a property in Delhi it would be a mind blowing Rs 30 million today, a growth of 10,000% overall. The rise in the price of land has been due to an explosion in black money due to a massive rise in corruption as the CWG scam, the 2G scam, the Coalgate scam and others have generated billions of rupees for the criminals. The low numbers of UHNI is because wealth has gone to those who were able to grab land and resources by exploiting their close relation with politicians. Isn't it ironic that while electricity rates in India have more than doubled and are still rising, because power generating companies complain of the high cost of imported coal, Indian companies are desperate to sell off mines in other countries because the falling price of coal has made them unprofitable. The price of thermal coal has dropped to a 3 year low while the cost of coking coal has dropped to a 6 year low. People have actually become poorer as double digit inflation has eroded wealth and profits have been hit as demand has fallen off. When profits fall tax collection falls with it. To somehow reduce deficit before elections the government has set targets for tax fellows who are probably resorting to strong arm tactics to force traders to pay more tax than they should. Large numbers of shops in south Delhi have remained closed in the last few days to avoid being forced to pay excess tax. If a few people grab all the resources others stay poor. That is what the report indicates.

Will history repeat itself?

On 28 June 1914 Archduke Ferdinand of Austria was shot dead in Sarajevo, precipitating World War I. On 28 June this year will be the centenary. So, will history repeat itself? Possibilities are certainly there. Thinking that President Putin would be restrained because of the Winter Olympics held in Sochi in Russia at the end of January the US and Europe instigated an armed coup in Ukraine resulting in the flight of Viktor Yanukovych, the elected president of Ukraine. Russia, with its Black Sea fleet based in Sevastopol, was never going to allow Crimea to be taken over by the NATO. As soon as the games were over Putin instigated a coup in Crimea which held a referendum resulting in Crimea becoming a part of Russia. Meanwhile the interim right wing government in Kiev, along with the neo-Nazi Svoboda, is threatening war against Russia and inviting the west to join in. They have found a sympathetic ear in British Prime Minister, David Cameron who, forever wanting to be Margaret Thatcher, promised ' significant costs ' to Russia, forgetting that Russia is no Libya and Putin, with his KGB training, is not a buffoon like Gaddafi. His mate, Barack Obama, the gasbag, has mocked Russia as a ' regional power '. He is the man who ran from Iraq, allowing Al Qaeda to return, and supplies weapons to Pakistan which the ISI has been passing on to the Taliban to kill US soldiers who are now running away from Afghanistan. Indiscriminate killing of civilians by using drones in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia has turned citizens of these countries into enemies of the US while talking peace with Iran, while it continues its nuclear weapons program, has turned the previously friendly Gulf states against the US. Naturally, Russia sees this as colossal hypocrisy by western countries who seem to believe that they have the right to attack other nations at will. Meanwhile the most dangerous nation in the world, China, with a fanatic nationalistic population, sees the annexation of Crimea by Russia as a precedent to be used to occupy land of surrounding countries. With its economy slowing down and experts predicting a hard landing the Communist Party might try to divert the people by provoking low grade conflict with its neighbors which could turn into full scale war. Thus we have Putin, a former KGB agent, Obama, a serial killer and a gas bag, Cameron, a sissy who wants to be macho, and China, a cockroach eating uncivilised nation of barbarians. The omens are certainly not good.

The answer is in the pings.

Exactly 3 weeks ago today flight MH 370 disappeared from the face of the earth carrying 239 passengers and crew. A British company Inmarsat claims that its satellites picked up pings from the aircraft engines and calculated that it could only have gone in a northern corridor over Myanmar and China towards Kazakhstan or a southern corridor to the southern waters of the Indian Ocean, about 1500 km west of Perth in Australia. There is no explanation as to why it could not have traveled east or west because the satellites are unable to locate where these pings were coming from. Then analysing the Doppler effect they came to the conclusion that it could only have gone south. Now we get reports of sighting of hundreds of pieces of debris both from planes and satellites. Since these are floating on the water they should be easy to retrieve. All they need are a few ships with nets trawling the surface of the water. Return the fish to the sea and keep everything else to be analysed to see if they are objects from the plane. Every plane carries a voice recorder and a flight recorder, designed to emit a series of pings for up to a month after an accident. Sound travels extremely well through water so common sense would suggest lowering receivers into the water to try and locate any sounds. China, the US and presumably even Australia have submarines which could scour the area to try and locate any pings from the recorders. Instead we have images of planes flying 1000 feet above the water with fellows squinting through the windows while the reporters try to convince us as to the sincerity of the search. Is it any wonder that the relatives of passengers are convinced that this is all a charade designed to fool them? There were 14 nationalities among passengers of whom 153 were Chinese and 38 were Malaysians. Among all these nationalities it is only the Chinese who have reacted with unrestrained fury, accusing the Malaysians of being liars and murderers. Surely, they should understand that no one could have predicted this, just as no one could predict the Air France crash in 2009 in the Atlantic. The truth is that they suspect their own government in Beijing of having blown up the plane and then applying pressure on the other countries to go along with the pretense. With over $3 trillion in reserve Beijing can easily pay for all the expense. Already vultures are circling. Lawyers in the US smell very large contingency fees from the billions to be paid in compensation and/or punitive damages. Maybe they will dig up the dirt.

What is the Sensex celebrating?

The Sensex, our index for the share market, closed at record high of 22,214 points yesterday. Pundits opine that it is the prospect of a stable government after the elections that is driving the market rally. The BJP claims that the markets are ecstatic at the prospect of a sweeping BJP victory. The Congress, naturally, does not agree. Our soon to be ex-most revered Finance Minister has confessed sole responsibility for this miracle. " It's not ' hope ' but the fact of a stable government provided by the UPA and the numerous measures taken in the last 18 months that have provided stability and strength to the Indian economy," he said. Er, but these measures would not be necessary if you had not brought the economy to a whisker of bankruptcy in your previous stint.  " I can assure the people and the investors that a Congress government will faithfully implement the ten-point agenda," he said. Easily said. He is not standing for reelection, hoping to sneak in through the Rajya Sabha. An estimated $70 billion is said to have been withdrawn from China, Brazil and Russia in the first 3 months of 2014. Some of that money has found its way into India. Foreign investors have poured $2 billion into Indian markets in the last 2 months, on top of $20 billion that came in last year. With the influx of dollars the rupee has risen to around 60 to the dollar. The Current Account Deficit has fallen to less than half of last year because of restrictions on gold imports although that has encouraged smuggling. Time for Patiala pegs all round? Some people are advising caution. They reckon that the economy is in such poor shape that it will take a long time to revive. The infrastructure is broken, companies are sitting on huge debts, which will take time to clear, and banks are trying to clear trillions of rupees in bad loans before they can start lending again. Is it possible that some money deposited in foreign banks is also returning to pay for election expenses? Apparently the Swiss government is refusing to cooperate with our fellows in sharing information about clandestine accounts by Indians. So the Congress is going to nullify the double tax avoidance treaty with them. if you have not done anything in 10 years why not leave it till 16 May when a new government takes over? The salaries of tax officials have been increased today. Meanwhile Delhi is seeing frantic repairs on its roads. Not the broken road surfaces with potholes the size of bathtubs. But the sides and the dividers are being painted and repaired. Lots of money in that. Also every vehicle has to have pollution check. At Rs 80 a pop that is billions of rupees. Elections are expensive. The people pay.

When rights are wrong.

An article by Yamini Aiyar of the Centre for Policy Research and Michael Walton, Lecturer in International Development at Harvard University, seeks to analyse what went wrong with all the laws giving rights to the poor in the form of the MGNREGA, Right to Education, Sarva Siksha Abhiyan, Food Security Act among others. " But the problem is that the laws simply did not go far enough," they write. They, one of them an American, see nothing wrong in treating people like lobotomised beggars, dependent on the state to provide for everything without any responsibility to the nation or to their fellow citizens. But, as communist countries found, wasting vast sums of money on unproductive social programs only increases budget deficit, causes inflation, reduces growth, thus reducing employment opportunities, and increases poverty, the opposite of what these programs set out to achieve. To fill the hole in the budget the government resorts to very high taxation on every goods and service, increasing prices and reducing demand. Between April and December manufacturing, which generates the most jobs, shrank by 0.7%. So how are the rich getting richer? The massive corruption in the last decade, the 2G scam, the Coalgate scam and others, has been a result of collusion between politicians and business fellows where telecom spectrum, coal fields and land were given away to cronies at dirt cheap rates. The newly developed Mumbai airport, with its acclaimed art collection, charges Rs 303 from domestic passengers and Rs 616 from international passengers, presumably only for departure but Delhi airport charges both for departing and arriving passengers. Rs 550 for departing and Rs 465 for arriving domestic passengers while for international travelers the rates are Rs 1270 for departure and Rs 1048 for arrival. This when the consortium that renovated the airport has been given surrounding land to develop. In a scary promise in its election manifesto the Congress promises to create 100 million new jobs. How? More MGNREGA? Mr S Birla, President of FICCI attempts to defend business people from charges of criminal conduct. Perhaps he could explain why everything we buy is either imported or made by foreign companies. Why waste energy manufacturing anything when rent seeking is much easier and lucrative? If they want to restore their reputations business fellows must demand an end to rights without responsibilities. But do they want to upset the politicians?

Wishing for failure.

From Vibhishan to Mir Jafar, India's history can be traced through its traitors. In the past it was about betraying secrets about armed forces but today it is about trying to undermine Mr Narendra Modi and trying to ensure that he fails in his efforts to make India richer and stronger. Some are plain angry at the prospect of the Congress losing out. Yes, the Congress led government was utterly corrupt but politicians of other parties are no saints either. Yes, the complete domination of the Congress by The Family is nauseating but there are other parties also run by families. Yes, the colossal waste of public funds on corrupt social schemes to buy votes caused inflation and ruined the economy but the real problem was that the Congress failed to cover up its flimflam. There are those that are openly hostile. Mr Modi is authoritarian and will be a dictator. Really? Why did the government fall flat on the ground when Mr Rahul Gandhi called the ordinance to protect convicted MPs a " complete nonsense " that should be torn up. Mr Modi will polarise the country because he will fail to protect minorities who are cowering in fear as second class citizens in Gujarat. These people have not visited Gujarat where minorities are making huge amounts of money and some even vote for Modi while the pseudo-secular Congress has kept them in ghettos for decades by its fear tactics. Then we have those who write reasoned articles on why Mr Modi will be ineffective. The BJP is divided, they say, with a cabal of bitter geriatric has-beens who will betray the party to stay in relevance when they have been irrelevant for a long time. True. We saw how local BJP fellows worked to defeat Gen Khanduri in Uttarakhand because he wanted to control corruption in the state. Since the BJP will not get an outright majority it will have to depend on coalition partners who will not allow any major reforms. Surely, it becomes the duty of these hacks, who are also citizens of India, to put pressure on these politicians so that they back economic reforms that we desperately need. Finally, there are those who are gloating that Modi will be shackled. The massive corruption of the Congress has resulted in freezing up the system, nefarious subsidies will be impossible to curtail and he will be stopped in the Rajya Sabha. Hard to believe that educated people are actually hoping for Mr Modi to fail. The enemy is within.

The not inscrutable Chinese.

The mystery of the Malaysia Airlines flight MH 370 gets murkier by the day. Yesterday the Prime Minister of Malaysia stated that there is no doubt now that the plane crashed into the Southern Indian Ocean, 1500 km from Perth in Australia. This is the most inhospitable part of the planet where the waters are 4 km deep with strong currents and high winds called the Roaring Forties. It took about 7 hours to reach this distance of 4000 miles and presumably ran out of fuel. The plane lost contact on 8 March over the Gulf of Thailand, between Thailand and Vietnam air spaces. Naturally this area was searched exhaustively by all surrounding countries. Yet on 13 March China claimed that its satellites had spotted debris in the same area. This was searched again. On 18 March China ruled out any hijack or attack by Chinese passengers on the pilots. How did they know when there was no contact and when experts say that the transponder was deliberately turned off, the plane was flown manually to a height of 45,000 feet, much above its cruising altitude and then came down to 5000 feet, much lower than it should have. On 20 March Australia announced that there was credible satellite evidence of debris in the southern Indian Ocean. On 22 March China confirmed the findings with its own satellites. So far so mixed up. The Chinese government has been quick to blame the Malaysian government, perhaps for political gain, but what cannot be explained is the violent reaction of the relatives of the passengers. One explanation given is that because of the one child policy the death of one young person wipes out an entire generation of the family and hence the uncontrolled grief. Maybe, but these people have been brainwashed since childhood to bear every misfortune in silence. The internet is blocked and any dissent is immediately blocked. In 2008 when melamine was found in baby milk formula the protesting parents were beaten up. Also in 2008 an earthquake in Sichuan province killed thousands. Schools collapsed, killing children, but party offices were not damaged. Again protesting parents were beaten up. Anyone daring to voice an independent opinion is sent to black jails for ' reeducation '. So why are the relatives protesting so violently. Is it because they suspect their own government in Beijing of being behind the disappearance of the plane? Do they think that China shot it down? They can never voice their suspicions so they blame the Malaysians. Only the recorders can solve the mystery. If they are found.

Secrecy is power.

We, the people of India, are totally powerless because of complete ignorance about our politicians. Even after 52 years the Henderson Brooks-Bhagat report about the total humiliation visited on the Indian armed forces by the Chinese in 1962 remains a secret. The only reason is to protect Jawaharlal Nehru's image which then protects the lineage to the present generation of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. So when Ms Maneka Gandhi asks," How did Sonia become so rich?" the answer is we do not know. We do not know the source of this family's wealth or how it is invested. We do not know if Ms Sonia Gandhi has officially renounced her Italian citizenship or whether she and her family have dual nationalities. And we do not know the nature of her illness that takes her to the US so frequently. It is this sense of entitlement in our politicians that they do not have to answer any question on their activities and laws are only for the aam aadmi that is at the root of social inequality. This is not peculiar to India but is present in every developing country which is the reason why we remain poor. Turkish Prime Minister, RT Erdogan has blocked access to the social networking site Twitter after news of corruption by his family began to circulate. With local elections due shortly he threatened to " wipe out " the network, which is an empty threat because it is an American company. Like in India the Turkish economy grew strongly on the back of massive debts and a boom in construction because of cheap money from the west and very low interest rates. Erdogan was strutting around like our Congress fellows. No longer. Growth has dropped to 3.9% in 2013 from 9.2% in 2010, Current Account Deficit is at 8%, core inflation is at 8% and is expected to rise to 10% and the Lira has dropped 23% against the dollar, raising cost of imports. However, just like the Congress Erdogan blames everybody except himself. So yesterday Turkish air force shot a Syrian fighter in Syrian airspace. Erdogan was gloating. Meanwhile 31 people have been killed by the police in Venezuela for protesting against inflation, uncontrolled violent crime and shortage of basic necessities. President Nicolas Maduro blames the people when inflation is above 50%. Keep people ignorant and if they protest shoot. Citizens are always weak.

Inequality is a political disease.

It is now well recognised that inequality causes mental illness which may, through drug use or enforced migration, cause physical harm. Armed forces know that uncertainty, through arbitrary use of power, makes people feel helpless and insecure but politicians prefer to define inequality in purely economic terms. It maybe because politics is about exercising power over others and crocodile tears about inequality allows them to increase taxes with which to bribe the poor for votes. In India we have dollar billionaires featuring in the list of the richest men in the world while arguing about whether earning Rs 33.3 per day makes you little bit poor as opposed to being dirt poor. Using these statistics the Congress doubled its tally in the Lok Sabha in 2009 by starting the MNREGA scheme, forgiving all loans to farmers and massively increasing salaries of useless civil servants. The results have been disastrous for the economy. Real GDP was growing at 8.1% in 2004, growth is 4.9% today, agriculture growth was 9% in 2004 vs 4.6% today, retail inflation was 3.8% in 2004 vs 9.6% today, car sales were growing at 27.2% in 2004 vs falling by 5% today, exports were growing at 23.3% in 2004 vs 5.5% today, Current Account was 2.3% in surplus vs 2% in deficit today. The only thing that has increased is the market capitalisation of companies to 62% of GDP vs 42% in 2004 as hot money flow has increased foreign ownership of stocks to 22% vs 16% in 2004. Even the IMF has weighed in with a report showing inequality increasing across the globe and Christine Lagarde has warned of its ' pernicious effects '. The report shows that countries with severe inequality has weaker growth. The IMF report recommends raising property taxes, taxing the rich more than others and raising the eligibility age for government retirement programs. Redistribution of wealth was the central pillar of communism which, with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, was shown to be a failure. But inequality is also increasing in the home of capitalism, the US. The reason is constantly increasing numbers of poor people in developing countries which allows American companies to use virtual slave labor abroad, reducing employment at home. Only by reducing the numbers of the poor can we increase their bargaining power. Or else inequality will increase as the rich exploit them to increase their own wealth. Trouble is the rich own the politicians as well.

Our prosperity depends on what we can buy.

Assuming a long term Wholesale Price Index of 6.5% for inflation in India Rs 100 is needed to buy today what Rs 13.80 would have bought 30 years back. Keeping money in term deposits in banks would have earned a negligible 1.6% per year before tax, gold would have given 3.3% while stocks would have given a return of 8.45% per year. These are average results. The author has forgotten the property sector which has given total returns of around 10,000%. And that is the root cause of what is ailing the Indian economy today. Vast amounts of black money, over which the government or the Reserve Bank have no control, has created a parallel economy. Farmers have sold land for sums they could not dream about and house owners in cities have built illegal extra floors for rent. Large income, without any productive enterprise, is partly responsible for the rampant inflation and has severely increased poverty as people waste money on rent because they cannot afford their own living space and spend ever higher on necessities. This has created 2 classes in India - those who own properties have become middle class or rich while those who do not remain trapped in ever increasing poverty. Where there is black money there is bound to be bad loans. Progressive Constructions ltd, a company owned by our most revered Union Textile Minister, Kavuri Samba Siva Rao ( who he and what does he do? ) has taken out loans of Rs 3.5 billion, mainly from SBI and other public sector banks. PCL has already defaulted on Rs 700 million loan from SBI and owes Rs 1.49 billion to Andhra Bank, Rs 470 million to Corporation Bank and Rs 420 million to Allahabad Bank. Gross Non Performing Assets of 40 listed banks rose by 36% to Rs 2.43 trillion by December last year apart from Rs 4 trillion which has been restructured, which is a nice word for rolling over with fresh loans. " The company was borrowing beyond its capacity and couldn't pay back since many projects, for which money was advanced didn't take off," said an official. If a project did not take off surely the money was not spent and should have been returned. Unless it was used. For what? The company is headed by the minister's daughter Ms Srivani Mullapudi. " There could be some issues," the minister admitted. Quite. 

At sixes and sevens.

Last June the Congress was frantic to stop the rupee from falling to 59 to the dollar. In panic the government increased the the quantity of government bonds foreign investors were allowed to buy, increased taxes on gold and increased interest rates on Non Resident Accounts while the RBI sold dollars to support the rupee. At the time retail inflation was at 12% and a weak rupee was going to make it much worse by increasing oil prices and the Congress feared a rout in the various state elections coming up. In the event the rupee fell to near 69 to the dollar. Now the rupee is come up to 61 to the dollar but the Congress wants the RBI to buy dollars to weaken the rupee further. Because a weak rupee encouraged exports by making our goods cheaper overseas while reducing imports by making them more expensive in India and thus decreasing our Current Account Deficit. The slight appreciation in the value of the rupee led to a 3.67% fall in exports for the first time in 8 months in February to $25.68 billion. India is not going to achieve its export target of $325 in the whole of this financial year, an amount China exports in 2 months. The government raises money through taxes and by selling stakes in public sector companies. However, that is not enough to meet its huge expenditure so the hole is plugged by borrowing from the market which the RBI does by selling bonds. The RBI sold bonds worth Rs 100 billion last month, the last auction for this fiscal. The government being the largest borrower in the market it sucks up liquidity, leaving banks with little money to lend for more productive economic activities, such as investments and new projects. This pushes up interest rates and increases the cost of borrowing for private and industrial investors. To increase liquidity the RBI has been buying government bonds worth Rs 150 billion and injecting another Rs 500 billion through other means. So on the one hand the RBI is selling government bonds worth Rs 100 billion and on the other it is buying Rs 150 billion back from the market. Today we hear that our most revered Finance Minister is not going to stand for reelection, his son is standing instead. In 2009 the friendly DMK was in power in Tamil Nadu but now it is the formidable Ms Jayalalitha. Perhaps it is best not to risk it.

No saints, only demons.

The countdown to the general elections starting on 7 April has begun. Think-tanks in every political gang are sitting with calculators to dissect every constituency according to religion, caste, class, professional mix, urban or rural and anything else they can think about. Tickets are then distributed to candidates with the best chance of winning, never mind a long list of past criminal charges. For all-India parties such as the Congress and the BJP the desire is to form the next government at the center because with that will come opportunities of being photographed with world leaders at various scenic locations in the world, attending various junkets, such as the World Economic Forum at Davos in Switzerland, and getting the CBI to drop charges of criminal activities, such as the Congress did with Bofors. For smaller parties the attempt is to get into double digits which may prompt an invitation to join a coalition and get hold of a ministry which will allow the party bosses to become enormously rich, as in the 2G scam. Lies, abuse and slander are being used liberally. In a repeat of Aurangzeb vs Dara Shikoh the DMK in Tamil Nadu has thrown out the elder son, Alagiri in favor of the younger son, Stalin. In this case the father, M Karunanidhi is siding with Mr Stalin so there will be no need of a large silver plate. Stalwarts of the Congress, including our most revered Finance Minister, are unwilling to stand because of the fear of being thrashed but maybe forced to stand because of the fear of Mr Rahul Gandhi. Fear can make you crawl. The English press has always been virulently pro-Congress, accusing the BJP of being communal as though the Shiromani Akali Dal, with 4 seats in the present Lok Sabha, and the Indian Union Muslim League with 2 seats, are not communal. The DMK with 18 seats, the AIADMK with 9 and the TDP with 6 seats are overtly racist parties. In a blatant act of caddish behavior the saintly Anna Hazare humiliated Trinamul Congress leader, Mamata Banerjee by refusing to appear at a rally because of poor attendance. So much for fearless army service. And what of Mr Arvind Kehriwal who burst on to the scene like a meteor and is turning out to be a Congress agent. His party AAP was formed only to prevent the BJP gaining a majority in the Delhi assembly elections. He deliberately failed to include Ms Sheila Dixit in the FIR filed for the Commonwealth Games scam allowing the Congress to protect her by making her the Governor of Kerala. The rakshasas have taken over this divine land. Sad.

Who should we blame? The boss or the lackeys?

Bollywood movies usually have a despicable villain, called the Baas ( Boss ), who lives in a beautiful bungalow, wears an expensive suit, drives an expensive car and entertains beautiful women in 5 star hotels while sending his hired goons to beat up poor, innocent people to steal their land. He never indulges in violence personally. On the contrary, he is gentle with children and contributes generously to charity. So, who carries the greater blame - the boss, who gives the orders but never gets his hands dirty, or the goons who beat and kill people. The Congress operates along similar lines. The Family is on top, living in Lutyens bungalows worth a combined Rs 12 billion. There are the trusted lieutenants who are allowed to contest safe seats and carry out whatever is necessary to keep The Family in power by using the police to file false cases against opponents, interfere with criminal cases of allies and destroying the economy by wasting vast sums of taxpayer money to bribe voters. And then there are those in the press who twist facts or write outright lies to throw mud on opponents while trying to whitewash the crimes of the Congress. One such article tries to prove that the reason the stock market is soaring is not due to the expectation of Mr Modi winning the elections but because foreigners are returning to the Indian market after selling out in a panic last year. Foreigners have put in only $1 billion which is a fraction of total financial investments in the world. In his efforts to throw mud on Mr Modi the writer himself provides the answer to why this is so. Mr Modi will have to build a coalition which will act as a drag on him. True but ' coalition dharma ' does not have to mean allowing politicians to steal trillions of rupees from the taxpayer. Just allow the Comptroller and Auditor General to do his job and he will automatically scare the crooks. The Congress has passed a lot of restrictive laws which he cannot undo because he does not have a majority in the Rajya Sabha. Banks cannot lend because they are saddled with trillions of rupees of bad loans. He has forgotten the deliberate act of economic sabotage in the Land Acquisition Act, the Seventh Pay Commission and many new social schemes. So who is to blame for the woes of India? The Family, the Dobermans or the liars who try to whitewash their crimes? Difficult problem.

Laws with huge holes are very profitable.

Seems that minority shareholders have forced Maruti to seek their approval before setting up factory in Gujarat. Maruti wanted to set up a 100% subsidiary in Gujarat and sell the cars it produced at cost plus surplus value to its parent company. Institutional investors, such as LIC, which holds 7% of shares, mutual funds and foreign investors, objected to the vague wording because they hold shares in the parent company and not in the subsidiary and hence would not be able to check its books to see what profits it made because that would determine their dividends. Maruti has clarified that it will not make any profit or loss when it sells cars to the parent company. This is being seen as a great victory for minority shareholders because of the safeguards in the new Companies Law. But is it? We must not forget that the government also controls a vast number of companies, called Public Sector Units or PSUs, with millions of minority shareholders. In an act of wanton economic vandalism the Congress led government has destroyed Rs 6.83 trillion of taxpayer wealth and Rs 1.7 trillion of investor wealth. MMTC shares have dropped from Rs 1030 in 2011 to Rs 48.15 today, a drop of 95%. Naturally its market capitalisation has dropped from Rs 1.03 trillion to a mere Rs 47 billion. Market cap of BHEL has dropped from Rs 1.07 trillion to Rs 664 billion, SBI has dropped from Rs 1.68 trillion to Rs 649 billion, NMDC from Rs 1.06 trillion to Rs 463 billion, Coal India from Rs 2 trillion to Rs 450 billion and ONGC from Rs 2.55 trillion to Rs 259 billion. How has the government managed this magical feat of vanishing money. Firstly, ministers treat companies under their control as private estates to provide for them and their families. Thus when Mr Praful Patel's daughter wanted to fly to the Maldives with in-laws Air India provided a larger plane so that they could all have business class seats. Fights went with 50 vacant seats each way. Air India is Rs 500 billion is debt. After running up a huge fiscal deficit the Finance Minister forced PSUs to pay massive dividends to bridge the gap, leaving no money for further investments. Lord Conrad Black was sent to prison in the US for looting his company, Hollinger International. Will any politician go to jail for looting the taxpayer. No. Why not? Because our most revered Finance Minister thinks that they are our sovereigns. Our laws cannot net the biggest criminals.

Should we start to celebrate?

First the Consumer Price Index fell to 8.1% last month from 8.79% in January. This is certainly much better than 11.17% in 2012 and a scorching 14.97% in 2009. Then came the Wholesale Price Index which fell to 4.68% last month compared to 5.05% in January. The fall in inflation rates is mainly because of a fall in the rates of rises in food prices. Food price inflation fell from 11.95% this time last year to 8.12%. Vegetable price inflation fell to 3.99% from 19.88% and price inflation of wheat fell from a whopping 21.81% to 6.52% but milk prices rose by 8.45% compared to 4.52% last year. So, should we pour a wee dram of Indian Made Foreign Liquor to toast these figures. Er, turns out that they may not be as good as they appear. Firstly, prices are still rising, albeit at a slower rate and even that maybe because of a high base effect. For instance if the price of an article rises from Rs 10 to Rs 20 it is a rise of 100% but if the price rises from Rs 50 to Rs 60 then the rise is only 20%. Secondly, the fall in vegetable prices was seasonal and due to a prolific monsoon but as the winter vegetables start to disappear and summer sets in, with the threat of an El Nino this year, prices could soar again. Industrial output increased by a measly 0.1% in January after falling by 0.2% in December. Manufacturing contracted by 0.7% and capital goods, which is the key indicator of demand in the economy, fell by 4.2%. Between April and January manufacturing fell by 1.5% and mining by 0.4% while electricity rose by 5.7%. Excellent monsoon rains filled up all reservoirs so hydroelectric output, which is almost free, should have increased. Yet electricity rates have been soaring because the price of gas paid to Reliance was suddenly doubled from $4.2 to $8.4 per million BTU by the outgoing Congress government and also because we are importing expensive coal from Indonesia and Australia while sitting on more than 250 billion tonnes of coal ores. If power companies have to buy gas at these rates they maybe compelled to shut down because power will become prohibitively expensive. Expensive power will increase manufacturing costs and increase inflation. All this is being done so that the new government which will be formed in May cannot function as the economy collapses so that the Congress can pass on the blame. The time to start celebrations will be if the Congress ceases to exist.

Hope it did not fly right across India.

The story Malaysia Airlines flight MH 370 gets more bizarre by the day. At first they said that it disappeared one and a half hours into the flight. Then they said that the flight turned back which was thought to mean that it had engine trouble and was trying to get back to Kuala Lumpur airport. One hour into the flight the transponders were turned off but the Aircraft Communications and Reporting System or ACARS continued to function for hours which would not have been the case if there had been a catastrophe on the plane. It is said to have climbed to 45,000 feet, much higher than its cruising altitude, and then dropped sharply as it disappeared from radar contact. A few days later the Americans reported that the plane was ' pinging ' up to 4 hours after it was thought to have crashed. Where the Americans lead the Brits are sure to follow. So London based Inmarsat piped up that it received pings 5 and a half hours after the plane disappeared which would mean that it could be 1000 miles or 1600 km from Malaysia. So where is the plane? A huge commercial airliner with 239 people on board cannot just disappear. If it had crashed into the sea there would definitely have been lots of debris floating around. There is a huge amount of plastic and thermocol  in planes and items of daily use carried by passengers which would be floating on the sea. The sea lanes in the Gulf of Thailand, the Straits of Malacca and the Indian ocean are very busy with commercial shipping and it is impossible that no one would have sighted any debris at all. The Prime Minister of Malaysia is now convinced that the plane was hijacked. By who? And for what? In the game of guesswork some are suggesting that the plane flew 1000 miles west of Australia and then crashed into the ocean. It is extremely difficult to hijack a plane after 9/11 attacks and anyone going through the arduous planning and huge expense would definitely have a reason. He would definitely want the whole world to know what he has accomplished. And why are the Chinese so angry? The Chinese government beat up parents of children who questioned why schools collapsed while party offices survived after the earthquake of 2011. Did the cockroach-eaters shoot the plane down? The most plausible explanation is that the plane was forced down in Aceh, Indonesia and taxied for hours to a hideout. We will know eventually.

We all lead wretched lives.

Real life is stranger than fiction. Who would have believed that one Pawan Kumar started a ' Kunwara Union ' or ' Batchelors Union ' in 2009 in Haryana. This organisation is now coined a slogan, ' bahu dilao, vote pao ', which means ' a bride for a vote ', for the coming elections. The reason for this bizarre demand is that there are only 877 women for every 1000 men in the state because of widespread abortion of female fetuses, made possible by ultrasound scanning. A survey of 56,520 residents in 92 villages in Haryana in 2010 by a Pune based NGO found 13.5% of men in the age group of 25-29 years were unmarried. High rate of unemployment may be partly to blame. This is because standards of education are so poor in India that only 25% of graduates are employable in the IT sector. Lots of educated women with high paying jobs are choosing to remain single because they see marriage and babies as hindrance to their careers. As is usual politicians have passed a draconian law which requires every ultrasound machine to be registered and bans portable machines. But where there is a demand there will be supply so the practice goes on. Just as women are still being killed for dowry even though the evil practice was banned in 1961. In fact, the fear of having to pay a dowry when a girl grows up is cited as one reason for the epidemic of euthanasia of girls. Why wait for the girl to be killed by her in laws after we have spent so much on her growing up, let us save money and do it ourselves. What is absolutely inexplicable is why there is so much violence against women in India. Women who had an English education parrot the western feminist view that India is a patriarchal society and men just want to subjugate women. Do we? Even though we are born of women. Fathers go out to work leaving women to being up their children. Why don't they brainwash their children that violence in any form is repugnant and every women must be respected. Perhaps women are part of the problem. Women do not like women and they treat their daughters harshly while pampering their sons, who grow up to be bullies. It is not just women. India has over 40 million guns, second only to the US and everyday someone is shot dead for some trivial reason. Perhaps it is best that girls do not have to face wretched lives.

A nation of goats.

Violent clashes erupted in Turkey 3 days back after the death of a 15 year old boy who has been in a coma since being hit on his head by a teargas canister on 16 June last year when, as a 14 year old, he had gone out to buy bread for his family. Predictably the government has responded with more violence. Prime Minister, Erdogan called the protesters " anarchists, terrorists and vandals " and said," Trying to set fire to the streets 18 days before elections is not a democratic stance." Similarly, Delhi police beat up sleeping protesters on 4 June, 2012 resulting in the death of a woman. Erdogan's party and family have been linked with multiple cases of corruption just as the Congress Party here in India. Seems that for these fellows ' democracy '    means the absolute power to do whatever they like after winning an election through whatever means possible and then savagely beating up anyone who disagrees. There are more similarities. The Turkish economy is sick with inflation at over 7%, exports are falling and the Current Account Deficit at 7% of GDP. The central bank is supporting the lira by selling dollars. The interest rate should be at least 11% but Erdogan will not allow it. In India the CPI has fallen to 8.1% last month from 8.79% in January, exports fell by 3.7% to $25.6 in February compared to last year and the rupee is at around 62 to the dollar. Our most revered Finance Minister would not allow the RBI to increase rates. Economies of Argentina and Venezuela are facing similar troubles with very high inflation, falling value of their currencies and rising deficits. Massive subsidies have ruined both their economies. Nicolas Maduro, the President of Venezuela has responded violently to the protests, blaming right wing elements supported by the USA. In India the Congress has won 2 elections by bribing its ' vote bank ' with massive handouts of taxpayer money, leading to inflation, high fiscal deficit and falling growth. The government in Thailand has been paying a higher than market price to rice farmers apparently to make them richer. There have been casualties in violent protests in the Thai capital, Bangkok. In India the government has a Minimum Support Price for buying grains which has made food so expensive. Our government has adopted the worst policies of all these countries and yet we do not protest. Are we a nation of goats? 

Why has it taken 30 years to understand.

Scorched earth policy was used very successfully by the Scythians against Darius the Great around 500 BC.
In recent years it has been used in various wars, the American Civil War, the Boer War and by Stalin against the Germans in World War II. It is an extremely drastic strategy which results in vast numbers of civilian deaths and as such is forbidden under the Geneva Convention. However, it has always been used as a last resort against an invading army and never against their own people by those in power. Until now. In an article Arvind Panagariya, Professor of Indian Political Economy at Columbia University in the US, has focused on how the Congress is ensuring the complete destruction of the economy so that whoever wins the elections in April will find it impossible to repair the damage and the past 10 years of total misrule by the Congress will look good in comparison. The Land Acquisition Act 2013 has made costs of acquiring land prohibitively expensive by mandating that rural land can only be acquired by paying 4 times the market rate and urban land by paying twice the market rate and everyone must be resettled. Just as MNREGA has caused food prices to rise by double digits by putting a floor under rural wages this Act has made it impossible to acquire any land whether for public projects, such as road building, or for private projects, such as building factories by putting floor under land prices. The only thing it has guaranteed is that the property price bubble will be permanently protected thereby protecting those with black money, namely politicians and civil servants, and makes it impossible for young people to buy their own property, thereby perpetuating poverty. Everything the Congress has done is recent days, such as increasing the handouts paid under the MNREGA scheme, increasing the Dearness Allowance paid to useless civil servants to 100% of basic pay and the setting up of the Seventh Pay Commission is directed towards destroying the economy. Apparently this is because all our politicians are motivated by extreme greed and personal ambition even at the cost of the nation. This was predicted in a book written 30 years ago by V Raghunathan. That is why decrepit old men in the BJP are trying to derail Mr Modi. When we have been saying this since 2009 why did the scholars wait till it is too late. If only they had spoken out before now.

Terrorists most welcome.

For the last 4 days the whole world has been mystified as to the fate of the Malaysia Airlines flight, MH 370 which disappeared in the early hours of 8 March with 239 passengers and crew, 5 of whom were children in the range of 2 to 4 years. At 1.30 AM, while flying over the Gulf of Thailand, on its way from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing in China, it lost all communications and even the transponder stopped working but radar could still track it for another 1 hour and 10 minutes before it disappeared completely. The plane is known to have veered towards the west but there is confusion whether it was trying to return to Kuala Lumpur or had flown hundreds of miles to the west over a small island called Palan Perak in the Malacca Straits. Apparently 4 passengers checked in but did not board the flight but there is confusion as to whether their luggage had been removed from the plane according to international practice. Relatives claim that they have been getting through to the phones of passengers. But the biggest mystery is about 2 Iranians who boarded the flight with false passports stolen in Thailand. They have been identified as Pouri Nour Mohammad Mehrdad, 18 years old who was using the passport of Christian Kozel, a 30 years old Austrian, stolen in 2012, and Mohammad Reza 29 years old, who was using the passport of Luigi Maraldi, a 37 years old Italian, stolen in 2013. A Malaysian official described Reza as resembling the AC Milan footballer, Mario Balotelli when CCTV pictures show that there is no resemblance whatsoever. This is particularly shocking given the intrusive and humiliating security checks by rude, arrogant officials that we have to endure at every airport. How could 2 ordinary Iranians, possibly with no knowledge of German or Italian, assume the identities of 2 Europeans and walk into the plane when the details of the passports were on the Interpol site? This explains why you are more likely to die of a bomb blast in India than in Afghanistan. Bio-metric cards like Aadhar and frequent Know Your Customer checks by banks are not really to stop terrorists but to frighten law abiding citizens into docility. Also it gives our masters, the politicians the excuse to block our roads with a fleet of SUVs bought with our money. Wonder who the real terrorists are.

China's collapse will be most welcome.

We know that, thanks to the Congress, the Indian economy is teetering on the edge of a precipice while the Chinese economy is galloping along at 7.5%, even after tightening of credit by the government. However, for a few months now there has been a steady drip of concern over China and some hints that things may not be as rosy as the government makes it out to be. George Soros, the billionaire investor, thinks that the greatest danger to the global economy in 2014 could come from China. Twice in 6 months last year the interbank lending rate rocketed to over 10% when the Peoples' Bank of China indicated that it would not increase lending to banks. It was not going to stop, or even reduce, lending but would not increase it. That was enough to cause the banking system to seize up. In panic the PBOC injected $55 billion into the system. Money is not a problem for the PBOC. It has been buying dollars to keep the renminbi weak so as to help exports and has a stockpile of over $3 trillion. Trouble is that in buying dollars it is injecting renminbi into banks which have been lending to local governments, companies and to individuals to buy properties. Total debt in China increased from 125% of GDP in 2008 to 215% of GDP in 2012, from $9 trillion to $24 trillion, a jump of $15 trillion in 5 years which is equal to the entire commercial banking sector in the US. Total credit jumped 20% last year. Banks are sitting on huge bad loans which they roll over by borrowing even more. Economists are worried about the speed of the credit growth rather than the total credit itself. 

Such a fast rate of growth has apparently occurred 33 times previously and each time it ended with a severe slowdown in growth. If the growth rate falls precipitously, with increasing unemployment and hardship, civil war could break out with division of the country. An outcome fervently to be hoped for as it will cripple our most dangerous enemy. For the first time a Chinese company, Chaori Solar has defaulted on its bond payment. If more companies default it would increase the stress on banks enormously. Matters will not be helped by a 18% drop in Chinese exports. With inflation at 2% the government can stimulate the economy by injecting more cash. But for what? At what point will the edifice collapse? We wait in anticipation.

Wealth is power. Make India wealthy.

US Assistant Secretary of State, Nisha Desai Biswal was in India recently. She is said to be of Indian origin, which had everyone expecting that relations between the US and India will become all hugs and kisses after the sexual assault on Devyani Khobragade by New York  Police at the instigation of Preet Bharara, who is also of Indian origin. " I would say that the US has welcomed every leader of this vibrant democracy, and that a democratically elected leader of India will be a welcome partner," was the sanctimonious dung she offered when asked about a visa for Mr Narendra Modi. " Visa issues are handled on a case-by-case basis. And determinations are made based on the facts of the day and reviewed at the time a request is made," said the well coached parrot. Why does the Indian press humiliate us by even asking such a question? If elected Prime Minister Mr Modi should concentrate on his job of rescuing the Indian economy which has been plundered almost to extinction by the Congress. Once growth starts to pick up the Americans will come wagging their tails. Money is power. That is why the US kowtows to China, regardless of its aggression towards all its neighbors, but is constantly hostile to Russia which is a democracy. They may not like Vladimir Putin's style of functioning but then the whole world thought that George Bush was a moron. People elect who they think will serve their interests. After all, Americans elected Obama twice as President even if some Americans think him to be ' subhuman '. That is the nature of the beast. It is absolutely inexplicable how the US, especially the Democrats, is consistently hostile to India while giving billions of dollars in aid and sophisticated arms to Pakistan whose intelligence service, the ISI, masterminded and funded the 9/11 attacks. The ISI has been training and supplying the Taliban to kill US and NATO soldiers in Afghanistan. The US and Europe masterminded the break up of Yugoslavia into 6 pieces and Czechoslovakia into 2 parts but if Russia objects to the elected President of Ukraine being deposed in a coup then it becomes a crime. The US wants international monitors in Ukraine, all Russian troops to return to bases and international community support for new elections arranged by the coup leaders. They must think that the Russians are as blind as they are. We must become wealthy. Then we can do whatever we like. Like China does.

If they are sovereign, what are we?

Last month Reserve Bank Governor, Raghuram Rajan suggested that the government should set the target for inflation so that the RBI knows exactly what to aim for in its monetary policy. In the past our most revered Finance Minister has been of the opinion that it is the duty of the RBI to stimulate growth by keeping interest rates at low levels regardless of how high the inflation is, as he said in his melodramatic " we will walk alone " speech. Mr Rajan wants to head off any tension in the future and wants to put the responsibility directly on the politicians. If they set a high figure people will know that they are responsible for rising prices, and punish them at elections, India's credit rating will be in jeopardy and the rupee will nosedive. Since politicians will not be able to pass on the blame they will think twice before wasting trillions of rupees on social schemes to buy votes. The Finance Minister has agreed wholeheartedly. " I think that is the correct approach," he said. " The sovereign has the right to set the target and then the central bank has the mandate to take steps to achieve the target." Wow! We did not know that he is our sovereign. We thought that politicians are elected only to represent our interests and to make the country stronger economically and militarily. Knowing that our politicians act only in their own interests it is natural to be suspicious, especially since the figures given by the government are suspect. Officially, the Current Account Deficit in the December quarter has fallen to $4.2 billion from $31.9 billion last year. This is attributed largely to a fall in import of gold because of increased tax on gold and stringent restrictions on its import. Till November 2013 import of gold is said to have fallen to 655 tonnes but according to the World Gold Council demand for gold has risen by 13% to 975 tonnes last year. That means that 150 to 200 tonnes of gold has been smuggled into the country. Which means that the CAD has been understated by $8.5 billion. Although the price of gold has been falling the price in India is higher than that in Dubai by Rs 4000 per 10 grams, so the profit on 1 kg of gold is Rs 500,000. Smugglers are using ever ingenious methods to bring in the precious metal. Some is being brought in legally by Non Resident Indians. So, the fear is that not only will they set a high rate for inflation but we will not know the right figure anyway. Are we allowed to question our sovereign?

Crony capitalism needs cronies.

While the economy grew by 4.7% in the December quarter, inflation continues to remain high and there is no sign of new investments the stock market is scaling new heights. The Sensex closed at a record 21,920 yesterday, up 406 points. As usual, tempted by the ever increasing index, retail investors are beginning to enter the market. Precisely at the wrong time. The financial sector, comprised of financing, insurance, real estate and business services sector grew 12.5% in the December quarter and contributed 49.4% to the growth of the economy. What are they financing when Industrial Production has been falling in the 3 months to December? New investment cannot happen unless growth accelerates and the economy cannot grow faster unless there is new investment, creating more jobs. Big companies are hamstrung by vast amounts of debt, 10 top conglomerates have a combined debt of Rs 6.31 trillion while gross Non Performing Assets in 40 listed banks grew by 37% since last year, from Rs 1.67 trillion to Rs 2.29 trillion. Companies cannot invest unless they have financing and banks cannot lend unless they recover their loans. In all this gloom one would be forgiven for thinking that our business fellows would be despondent. Not a bit of it. While globally CEO confidence is down in India it is up. 70% of Indian CEOs are very confident over the next 3 years and 27% somewhat confident. Only 3% are not confident at all. What is the reason for such a sunny outlook? It maybe because they think that things cannot get any worse and are optimistic that a new government after elections will get the economy growing again. Or it maybe because they know that whoever comes to power they will continue to make money by rent seeking, selling off our natural resources and from the huge property price bubble. We have seen an explosion of corruption during this Congress led government which has led to enormous anger against politicians and civil servants but every scam was constructed by business fellows. Some industries, such as IT and automobiles, have genuinely grown through increased sales but most of the others is because of their close association with politicians and civil servants. After all you cannot have crony capitalism without cronies. Thus on the one hand we have massive socialist handouts by the Congress and on the other we have the worst form of crony capitalism. Worst of all worlds. How lucky is that?

Women cannot work because of poor services.

Between 2004 and 2012 number of working women in India declined by nearly 7% to 22.5% according to the National Sample Survey Office, while globally at least one third of women work. In Maharashtra farmers in Waifad village have to transport women from Wardha town, 18 km away to work as labor on their farms. In rural areas a combination of factors are contributing to women leaving the workforce. A lot of these factors are very good. Rural wages have risen by 6.8% from 2007 to 2011 after accounting for inflation which would mean that one income could suffice for a family. Instead of breaking their backs in farm labor women can avail the MNREGA which pays for 100 days a year for doing nothing. It is not just women but the total rural labor force has declined from 238 million in 1999 to 231 million in 2012. A lot of this labor has migrated to the construction industry. From 2000 to 2012 the labor force in construction has grown from 16 to 50 million at 17% per annum, in rural areas it has grown from 9.4 to 37.2 million. Women are aspiring to higher education and are moving to cities in greater numbers for white collar jobs. There are also the problems of caste segregation and sexual attacks in rural areas. That would mean that participation by women in the workforce in towns and cities must be increasing. But here too the numbers of working women has declined. While there seem to be plenty of studies suggesting that greater participation by women in the workforce increases profitability and is good for the economy by increasing the pool of labor, when it comes to reasons for their refusal to work pundits seem to fall back on the tired western rhetoric of gender inequality and patriarchal society in India. Anyone who has brought up children recently would know that the biggest impediment is education. Schools close at mid-day and have long vacations which means someone has to be home to care for little children. If teachers are made to work from 9 to 5 throughout the year, taking holidays in rotation as happens in any office, all mothers could work. There should be job sharing so that 2 people worked half a day each. Services such as water and electricity supply must be dependable. School fees have risen 433% since the Congress came to power in 2004 so perhaps her salary cannot pay for transport costs and baby minders. Stupid laws will not make it easy for women to work.

It is the inflation, stupid.

Our Finance Ministry was angry and dismissive when the IMF singled out inflation as the most important adverse factor for growth in a report on 20 February. " Given elevated and persistent inflation, the analysis suggests that the RBI may need to raise rates decisively to tackle inflation durably. As inflation is mostly backward looking, monetary policy has to maintain a right stance for a prolonged period of time," the report said. This government, including the Most Famous Economist, has been insisting that growth must be attained at any cost and monetary tightening would have no effect because the main cause of inflation is the rise in food prices which is independent of interest rates. Low interest rates would help the construction industry, increasing employment of low wage labor and economic growth would increase tax collections which would enable the Congress to increase handouts, both of which would please the vote bank. Now economists working at the IMF have justified their report in an article. They say that the Consumer Price Index, as favored by the new RBI Governor, Raghuram Rajan, should be the measure of inflation and not the Wholesale Price Index that the Congress prefers. Anyway, the MNREGA scheme is linked to the CPI and pushes up wage cost by acting as a floor, as is the Dearness Allowance paid to useless civil servants. IMF research suggests food price inflation in emerging economies is more persistent than in developed economies because households spend a much greater proportion of income on food and this spreads to the non-food economy. They call this second-round effects and it is this that needs to be controlled with high interest rates. A weak rupee should, by making our goods cheaper, encourage exports but high inflation negates that by making cost of production very high so the advantage is lost. India will not achieve $325 billion worth of exports this year, what China exports in a month. So what is the response of the Congress? It has increased the handouts paid under the MNREGA scheme to rural labor for doing nothing. This will take effect on 1 April, at the start of the new financial year. Yet, the Election Commission has announced general elections will start on 7 April which will surely bring in a new government. Is the Congress trying to destroy the economy so that the new government cannot function? No sharam, no izzat.

Mysterious ways of our justice system.

Can anyone explain why Subrata Roy is in prison? What exactly is his crime? Apparently acting on a complaint by a fictitious person named Roshan Lal from Indore the Security and Exchange Board of India started to investigate how 2 companies controlled by Roy, under the Sahara brand, had raised Rs 48.43 billion and Rs 323.56 billion between 2004 and 2009. SEBI wants to know the identity of every investor because it suspects a ponzi scheme. Sahara says that it raises money form the poor, such as rickshaw-pullers and day-laborers who have no fixed address. It supplied truck loads of documents to SEBI. SEBI says it has jurisdiction over the funds because they were raised through Optionally Fully Convertible Debentures.
Sahara contends that it took permission from the Registrar of Companies at Kolkata and Kanpur. Sending him to prison till 11 March the Supreme Court said yesterday," Preservation of market integrity is extremely important for economic growth of this country for national interest. Maintaining investors' confidence requires market integrity and control of market abuse. Market abuse is a serious financial crime which undermines the very financial structure of this country and will make imbalance in wealth between haves and have nots." Hallelujah to that. The problem with these lofty ideals is that not one person has ever complained of having lost money with Sahara, so clearly it is not a ponzi scheme. If it is money laundering that the SEBI is worried about it should ask the CBI to investigate. If the charge is tax evasion then ask the tax fellows to look into it. While the SEBI is so exercised with Mr Roy it has not noticed that Mr Ketan Parekh, who was banned from trading in stocks by the SEBI in 2003, is still active in the market. Mr Parekh has just been sentenced to just 2 years in prison for fraud committed 14 years ago with a fine of Rs 50,000, which is probably the salary of his driver. Ramalinga Raju is enjoying marriage parties with celebrities and politicians. He confessed to the largest corporate fraud in 2009 but is still free. The Supreme Court itself released Mr Lalu Yadav on bail after serving a derisory 2 months of a 5 year sentence. Mr Yadav is now trying to influence the coming general elections. Clearly the Court is not worried about ' national interest ' from criminal politicians. Only Mr Roy who has not cheated anyone. Mystery.

They are angry because they failed.

Europe and the US are furious with Russia for sending troops into Ukraine. They had it all planned so well. In talks last November the EU offered a loan of 610 million Euros and IMF help, with all the painful adjustments that entails, for Ukraine to become an associate of the EU while Russia offered a $15 billion package including gas at attractive rates. The then President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych naturally opted for the Russian package. Also because he is ethnically Russian from the east of the country. Knowing that Russian reaction would be restrained because of the Winter Olympics at the end of January western countries instigated, supported and financed a violent protest movement against Yanukovych, hoping to overthrow him and install a puppet government in Kiev. Sadly for them he hung on till 2 days before the Olympics ended and then fled into Russia. They even tried to assassinate him but failed. Oleksandr Turchynov, the Speaker of the Parliament, who resembles Ernst Stavro Blofeld, was elected interim President. With the economy in such trouble that Ukraine is in danger of defaulting on its debts the first act of the new government was to ban Russian as the second language. This infuriated ethnic Russians and they protested, giving Russia the excuse to send troops into Crimea. Now the west is accusing Russia of breaking international treaties. In 2003 the then US Secretary of Colin Powell deliberately lied to the UN Security Council about WMDs possessed by Saddam Hussein. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis have died since then because of what the US did. In 2009 when Manuel Zelaya, President of Honduras was ousted in a coup for wanting to change the constitution, so that he could stand for a second term, Europe and the US severely condemned the coup. Obama urged officials in Honduras " to respect democratic norms, the rule of law and the tenets of Inter-American Democratic charter." Well, Yanukovych was the democratically elected President of Ukraine and he has asked for Russian help against the coup. If Falkland Islands, off the coast of Argentina and 7000 miles from Britain, can choose to stay British in a referendum surely Crimea should be given the same opportunity. Whatever the future, so far it seems that the west has lost this round. That is why they are furious. Hypocrites make poor losers.

Trust is like Humpty Dumpty.

In an article full of rage one Mr Kanti Bajpai mourns the collapse of the Congress with elections looming.
While reluctantly acknowledging crimes committed by the Congress he tries to justify them with the tired old excuse of ' Everyone else is also doing it '. For instance," Clearly, UPA's record on corruption has disgusted millions of voters.... Hyena cries of the opposition are justified, but their own record is dismal and largely shameful." Firstly, one crime does not justify another and secondly, Congress has been in power at the center for 56 years out of the 66 years since independence and has set the standard in immorality. Thus when the Congress wastes taxpayer money on MNREGA and Food Security others promise free color TVs, free Mangalsutra and even one free goat and milch cow for each household, in a race to economic disaster. He concludes," A Congress collapse is not good for India....The Grand Old Party of Indian politics must find a way back, for all our sakes." We hope not, at least not this Congress. The nation cannot afford a bunch of totally spineless sycophants prepared to sink to any level in corruption, to bankrupt the nation and to make it naked in defense to pour all our money into ensuring that The Family remains in power. The legacy of this government will be a complete break in trust between people and politicians which maybe a good thing as people realise that getting handouts keeps them beggars forever. Indians are the most suspicious people in the world, sometimes preferring to die at home because of their lack of trust in doctors. Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz has this to say," .....no economy, not even a modern market-based economy like America's, can function without a modicum of trust." And again," Economic inequality, political inequality, and an inequality-promoting legal system all mutually reinforce one another." In ten years of power the Congress has increased inequality infinitely. By wasting taxpayer money to win elections, thereby increasing poverty by precipitating inflation, distributing coal mines to friends, such as gutka makers with no experience in mining and using the CBI to hound opponents while withdrawing cases against those who helped it to hang on to power the Congress has multiplied inequality many times over. Trust once destroyed is not so easy to recover.

Blaming others weakens sovereignty.

When our diplomat in New York, Devyani Khobragade was sexually molested by New York Police there was outrage in India at this assault on our sovereignty. Justifiably so. But when our economy goes into free-fall our government blames ' outside forces '. Why? In these days of globalisation our economy will surely be affected by what happens in Europe, the US or China but as a sovereign nation we should be the sole guardian of our money and enact policies which make us richer, even if these have deleterious effect on other countries. Exactly what the Federal Reserve in the US is doing. The Fed has been stimulating the US economy by keeping interest rates at near 0% and releasing $85 billion dollars every month by buying bonds. A part of this money came to India looking for higher returns making the rupee stronger and loans cheaper for us. Companies went on a borrowing spree, increasing capacity without hedging against a fall in the value of the rupee, and property prices grew exponentially. In 2000 agricultural labor amounted to 238 million which dropped to 231 million in 2012. As tax collections increased the Congress resorted to huge handouts to please its ' vote bank ', to win elections. Inflation and fiscal deficit went out of control. Current Account Deficit reached 4.8% of GDP and could be controlled only by severely restricting import of gold. Last year the rupee fell to 69 to the dollar when the Fed hinted at reducing, or tapering, its bond buying program. This should never have been allowed to happen. When the rupee was appreciating the Reserve Bank should have been buying dollars, building up a large foreign currency reserve and keeping the rupee between 45 and 50 to the dollar to discourage imports. Economists Barry Eichengreen and Poonam Gupta say," Emerging markets that allowed the largest appreciation of their real exchange rates and the largest increase in their current account deficits in the prior period of quantitative easing saw the sharpest currency depreciation, reserve losses and stock market declines when talk turned to tapering." However, while their attention has been fixed on the dollar the Chinese central bank pushed the Yuan down to deter speculators who have been buying the Yuan on borrowed money. If the Yuan falls suddenly what happens to the rupee? A strong nation would never allow others to dictate its economy.