Friday, March 28, 2014

What is the Sensex celebrating?

The Sensex, our index for the share market, closed at record high of 22,214 points yesterday. Pundits opine that it is the prospect of a stable government after the elections that is driving the market rally. The BJP claims that the markets are ecstatic at the prospect of a sweeping BJP victory. The Congress, naturally, does not agree. Our soon to be ex-most revered Finance Minister has confessed sole responsibility for this miracle. " It's not ' hope ' but the fact of a stable government provided by the UPA and the numerous measures taken in the last 18 months that have provided stability and strength to the Indian economy," he said. Er, but these measures would not be necessary if you had not brought the economy to a whisker of bankruptcy in your previous stint.  " I can assure the people and the investors that a Congress government will faithfully implement the ten-point agenda," he said. Easily said. He is not standing for reelection, hoping to sneak in through the Rajya Sabha. An estimated $70 billion is said to have been withdrawn from China, Brazil and Russia in the first 3 months of 2014. Some of that money has found its way into India. Foreign investors have poured $2 billion into Indian markets in the last 2 months, on top of $20 billion that came in last year. With the influx of dollars the rupee has risen to around 60 to the dollar. The Current Account Deficit has fallen to less than half of last year because of restrictions on gold imports although that has encouraged smuggling. Time for Patiala pegs all round? Some people are advising caution. They reckon that the economy is in such poor shape that it will take a long time to revive. The infrastructure is broken, companies are sitting on huge debts, which will take time to clear, and banks are trying to clear trillions of rupees in bad loans before they can start lending again. Is it possible that some money deposited in foreign banks is also returning to pay for election expenses? Apparently the Swiss government is refusing to cooperate with our fellows in sharing information about clandestine accounts by Indians. So the Congress is going to nullify the double tax avoidance treaty with them. if you have not done anything in 10 years why not leave it till 16 May when a new government takes over? The salaries of tax officials have been increased today. Meanwhile Delhi is seeing frantic repairs on its roads. Not the broken road surfaces with potholes the size of bathtubs. But the sides and the dividers are being painted and repaired. Lots of money in that. Also every vehicle has to have pollution check. At Rs 80 a pop that is billions of rupees. Elections are expensive. The people pay.

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